Kentucky Derby Longshot Picks

The 150th edition of the Kentucky Derby takes place on Saturday at Churchill Downs in Louisville with Fierceness listed as the 5-2 morning-line favorite. Fierceness won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile race last year and he is coming off a dominating win in the Florida Derby in late March. Fierceness drew the No. 17 post position for the Derby but because Encino was scratched on Tuesday, all the horses outside of Encino move up a spot so Fierceness will start from post No. 16. That is good news for Fierceness, as no horse has ever won the Kentucky Derby from post position No. 17. Four horses have won from post position No. 16. Sierra Leone is second in Kentucky Derby odds at 3-1 and will break from post position No. 2.  Sierra Leone is coming off a win in the Blue Grass Stakes. Catching Freedom is listed as the third choice at odds of 8-1. All other horses are listed at double-digit odds. Saturday’s Kentucky Derby has a post time of 6:57 p.m. Eastern Time and can be seen on NBC. Let’s look at Kentucky Derby longshot picks.

Check out the latest Kentucky Derby odds at Caesars.

2024 Kentucky Derby

Post Horse Trainer    Jockey ML Odds

1    Dornoch   Danny Gargan Luis Saez     20-1

2 Sierra Leone Chad Brown Tyler Gaffalione         3-1

3 Mystik Dan Kenny McPeek Brian Hernandez Jr.   20-1

4 Catching Freedom Brad Cox Flavien Prat         8-1

5 Catalytic Saffie Joseph Jr. Jose Ortiz           30-1

6 Just Steel D. Wayne Lukas Keith Asmussen         20-1

7 Honor Marie Whit Beckman Ben Curtis            20-1

8 Just a Touch Brad Cox Florent Geroux     10-1

9 T O Password Daisuke Takayanagi Kimura Kazushi        30-1

10 Forever Young Yoshito Yahagi   Ryusei Sakai      10-1

11 Track Phantom Steve Asmussen    Joel Rosario              20-1

12 West Saratoga Larry Demeritte    Jesus Castanon          50-1

13 Endlessly Michael McCarthy    Umberto Rispoli       30-1

14 Domestic Product Chad Brown Irad Ortiz Jr.             30-1

15 Grand Mo First Victor Barboza Jr.  Emisael Jaramillo    50-1

16 Fierceness Todd Pletcher John Velazquez          5-2

17 Stronghold Phil D’Amato Antonio Fresu          20-1

18 Resilience Bill Mott Junior Alvarado       20-1

19 Society Man Danny Gargan Frankie Dettori        50-1

20 Epic Ride John Ennis Adam Beschizza     50-1

Kentucky Derby Longshots

For the purpose of the longshots, we’ll only consider horses listed with morning line odds of 20-1 or more. That eliminates the two favorites, Fierceness and Sierra Leone and darkhorse contenders Catching Freedom, Just a Touch and Forever Young. That leaves us 15 horses to consider. 

Let’s begin by putting these longshot horses into three categories. We have horses we are seriously considering who could win the race, horses that could be a factor if it rains and then the nearly hopeless cases. I’ll start by throwing out T.O. Password. He didn’t face anything in Japan and I don’t see him being competitive against a good field. Catalytic has just one maiden win in three tries and I can’t see him taking this big step. The trainer for Endlessly said he would prefer to race his horse on the grass than the dirt so he is a throw out. West Saratoga tries really hard but he simply isn’t fast enough against this field. Grand Mo the First couldn’t hang with Fierceness in the Florida Derby and was 2.5 lengths behind Catalytic and I don’t see that much improvement from him in this race so he is a toss.

I don’t think rain is going to be a factor, but with the weather you never can tell. Horses that you could consider if it rains are Dornoch who has run well on off tracks, Mystik Dan who romped on a muddy track in the Southwest Stakes, Track Phantom who has run well on off tracks in the past and Stronghold is coming off two straight wins and he should love a wet track.

Now it is time for the longshot contenders. Just Steel is trained by D. Wayne Lukas and he is going to be overbet for that fact alone. He is still worth considering, but he will be overvalued. Honor Marie is another horse that is going to be overbet. He is training well and was second to Catching Freedom in the Louisiana Derby.  He has also run well at Churchill in the past. Domestic Product is a closer and if the race falls apart, he could steal it. 

Resilience is trained by Bill Mott and he looked good in the Wood Memorial. He definitely demands respect. Society Man gets Frankie Dettori in the irons but that may not be enough. Don’t forget about Epic Ride who got in with the scratch of Encino. The horse has never been worse than third in five starts.

Kentucky Derby Longshot Picks

I will go with Resilience as my top Kentucky Derby longshot if the weather is good and I think Epic Ride could get in the mix. If it rains then I think Track Phantom has a real chance along with Stronghold.Check out the latest Kentucky Derby odds at Caesars.