NFL MVP Odds and Picks

Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes is favored to win his third NFL MVP award this season. Mahomes is coming off a Super Bowl MVP award, as he led the Kansas City Chiefs to a win over the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LVIII. Mahomes is listed with odds of +480 at Caesars to win the regular season NFL MVP award in 2024-2025. Getting some early attention behind Mahomes in the NFL betting odds is Houston quarterback CJ Stroud who is listed with odds of +850. Quarterbacks dominate the MVP odds, as the first 16 players listed are all quarterbacks. San Francisco running back Christian McCaffrey is the first non-quarterback in terms of MVP odds. It makes sense, as the last non-QB to win the award was Adrian Peterson in 2012. Let’s look at 2024-2025 NFL MVP odds and NFL MVP picks.

2024-2025 NFL Regular Season MVP Odds at Caesars

Patrick Mahomes +480

CJ Stroud +850

Josh Allen +900

Joe Burrow +1000

Lamar Jackson +1000

Jordan Love +1200

Jalen Hurts +1400

Justin Herbert +1500

Aaron Rodgers +1600

Dak Prescott +1600

Brock Purdy +1800

Matthew Stafford +2500

Tua Tagovailoa +2500

Anthony Richardson +2500

Trevor Lawrence +3000

Jared Goff +3000

Christian McCaffrey +3500

Justin Fields +4000

Kirk Cousins +4000

Deshaun Watson +5000

Tyreek Hill +5000

Kyler Murray +5000

Caleb Williams +5500

Baker Mayfield +7500

All other players are listed at odds of +10000 or more.

Favorite

Mahomes is listed as the short-priced favorite to win the NFL’s Most Valuable Player award for the 2024-2025 regular season. Mahomes won the award in 2018 and in 2022. Last season he threw for 4,183 yards last season and completed 67.2% of his passes. He threw 27 TD passes and had 14 interceptions. He also rushed for 389 yards. Mahomes put up those numbers with what was considered a weak receiving group. It is believed that Kansas City’s receiving corps will be much better this season with the additions of Marquise Brown, rookie Xavier Worthy and a full season from Mecole Hardman. The Chiefs already have the best tight end in the league in Travis Kelce and returning receivers Rashee Rice and Justin Watson.

Darkhorse Contenders

There is no question that the player getting the most attention in terms of NFL MVP odds is Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud. Many people are already calling him a top five quarterback in the NFL after just one season.  He led the Texans to the playoffs last season, as he threw for 4,108 yards, 23 touchdowns and had just five interceptions, while completing 63.9% of his passes. His top receivers last year were third-year pro Nico Collins and rookie Tank Dell. This season he will get former All-Pro receiver Stefon Diggs to throw to. 

The only other player listed at single-digit odds is Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen. He opened as the favorite to win the award last year and he had a good season but he threw far too many interceptions. He threw for over 4,300 yards and had 29 TD passes last season but he threw 18 interceptions. He will also be without his top receiver, as Stefon Diggs is now in Houston.

Last year’s NFL MVP winner Lamar Jackson is listed with odds of +1000. Many people believe that Jackson’s numbers will go down this season, as Baltimore added running back Derrick Henry in the off-season.  Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow is also listed at odds of +1000. He played just 10 games last season due to injury, but if he can stay healthy, he might be able to contend for the NFL MVP award this season.

Other quarterbacks listed with odds between +1200 and +1800 are Green Bay’s Jordan Love, Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts, the Chargers’ Justin Herbert, the Jets’ Aaron Rodgers, Dallas’ Dak Prescott and San Francisco’s Brock Purdy.

NFL MVP Picks

I am not one to bet the favorite very often, so I am not taking Mahomes at his current number. Stroud is intriguing, as he has a lot of weapons at his disposal and there is no question he is the real thing. I think there is far more value in taking Stroud than Mahomes. Two darkhorse players worth taking are Justin Herbert and Aaron Rodgers. The Chargers have a new head coach in Jim Harbaugh and he should immediately turn the Chargers into a playoff contender and Herbert could have a big season. Rodgers is being counted on to lead the Jets to big things and he has proven in the past that he can win the award, as he won it in 2011, 2014, 2020 and 2021.Check out the latest NFL odds at Caesars.