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October 4, 2024Auburn vs. Georgia Same Game Parlay Picks, Odds & Predictions Recap
For the second time in as many weeks, the Georgia Bulldogs dipped into my bankroll after grossly failing to get the job done against the Auburn Tigers in their get-right spot back home following the tough loss to the Alabama Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa. I recommended laying the 24-points and hitting the over of the Dawgs 38.5-point team total with the belief Carson Beck and Co. would have their way with a porous Tigers defense enough to allow Trevor Etienne to salt the game away in the second half. While the latter ultimately exceeded his 83.5-yard rushing yards prop, he did so by the slimmest of margins with his 16 carries and 5.5 yard per carry average equating to 88 rushing yards and a pair of touchdown plunges. Unfortunately, Georgia’s inability to force any turnovers, allowing Auburn to hold possession of the ball for 28+ minutes, ultimately prevented the Bulldogs from opening the game up enough to cover the lofty NCAAF odds or exceed their team total.
I’ve now failed to pinpoint the point spread winner in three straight Georgia games. I will voluntarily go to the penalty box and feel shame! Having said that, it sickened me to see the betting line fall to 21.5 at the close with the Dawgs only taking in 50 percent of the money. After watching the same thing occur in the game at Kentucky, I knew it would be a tough uphill climb to topple the number going in. It didn’t happen, with UGA only holding a 383-337 yardage advantage even though it converted 54% of its 13 third down tries and moved the chains on both fourth down attempts. Carson Beck played to a 124.1 QB rating by completing 23 of 29 passes for 240 yards and 2 TD, but the showing only moved his odds to win the Heisman at Caesars Sportsbook from 25-1 to 22-1.
With the Dawgs defense nowhere near as dominant as it once was, the Bulldogs got some work to do on the offensive side of the ball with the unit averaging 14.4 yards per point (#68) and ranking out 27th in red zone scoring percentage. The offense better figure it out before that trip to Austin!
Auburn vs. Georgia Same Game Parlay Picks, Odds & Predictions
All eyes will be on Athens Saturday afternoon when the No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs welcome the Auburn Tigers into Sanford Stadium to see how the Dawgs react to suffering their first loss of the college football betting season. In case you live under a rock, the Dawgs enter this tilt fresh off dropping a thriller to the Alabama Crimson Tide in a game that saw Kirby Smart’s kids battle back from a 28-0 deficit to make a game of it before ultimately coming up short 41-34. Auburn meanwhile, fell to 0-2 in SEC play last week after failing to defend its turf against the Oklahoma Sooners in a match it held a 21-10 lead in at the outset of the fourth quarter.
As one would expect, the Dawgs hit the board as enormous 23-point NCAAF odds favorites with the Over/Under lined 51. Market corrections have occurred in each market since. The number to beat has jumped to -24 over at Caesars Sportsbook even though it’s the visiting Tigers that’ve taken in 63% of the bets and 56% of the money per current action reports. The total has jumped a full point to 52 by way of the over getting bludgeoned with 90+ percent of the tickets and 85+ percent of the handle. Auburn covered as two touchdown home dogs to the Bulldogs in last year’s meeting snapping a streak of six straight non-covers in the recent rivalry that’s seen Georgia come out on top seven straight times winning by an average of 18.4 points per game.
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Auburn Tigers vs. Georgia Bulldogs CFB Same Game Parlay:
Facing a 28-0 deficit with the entire college football betting community pointing and laughing, most teams would’ve folded and let the blowout play out. But not Georgia. Somehow, the Dawgs rolled up their sleeves and chipped away at the lead, making it a game by the fourth quarter. If not for Ryan Williams’ sensational catch and subsequent 75-yard touchdown—an iconic moment in Alabama football history—we might be talking about one of the greatest comebacks in the sport’s history, rather than Georgia absorbing its first loss of the season. To do that on such a big stage was truly something to behold. It will be interesting to see how Kirby Smart’s kids react to going down in defeat like that.
Personally, I believe the Dawgs will put their best foot forward and start their march toward a College Football Playoff spot by taking Hugh Freeze’s Tigers out behind the woodshed for an old-fashioned beating. The difference in schedule strength between these two teams is stark. While Georgia has yet to cover a spread since their win over Clemson in the season opener, Kentucky proved its worth by pushing the Dawgs to the limit before upsetting Ole Miss as two-touchdown underdogs last week. And Alabama is, well, Alabama. Meanwhile, Auburn has been favored in all five of its games but stands 2-3 straight up and against the spread, with losses to Cal, Arkansas, and Oklahoma—none of whom can compare to what Payton Thorne and the Tigers will face come Saturday afternoon. Throw the collective chip on the shoulder the Bulldogs will be playing with, it’ll be curtains quickly should Auburn continue playing the way it has to open SEC play.
Auburn doesn’t boast a specimen under center like Alabama, one who can pick apart a defense with both his arm and legs. As a result, Auburn’s one-dimensional attack is likely to struggle moving the ball and putting points on the board, especially against Georgia’s 25th-ranked pass defense, which should contain Auburn’s 25th-ranked passing attack. With Auburn turning the ball over 2.3 times per game, it’s hard not to expect them to be generous ‘Between the Hedges,’ with 93,000+ fans going wild for UGA’s SEC home opener. Despite throwing three interceptions last week, Carson Beck still managed nearly 400 passing yards and 3 TDs. While Georgia’s running game will play a bigger role this week as they control the game script, Beck will still get his opportunities against an Auburn defense allowing 208 passing yards per game (#67) and generating little pressure on quarterbacks (#71). Once Auburn adjusts to limit the passing game, Trevor Etienne will feast on an Auburn run defense that has only excelled against weaker opponents. Anything less than a 35-point win for UGA would be a disappointment. Having failed to cover the spread since throttling Dabo and no real threat to look ahead to next week, expect Kirby to take care of the boosters and rub it in whenever possible.
- GEORGIA BULLDOGS (-24)
- GEORGIA BULLDOGS OVER 38.5 TEAM TOTAL
- ETIENNE OVER 83.5 RUSHING YARDS