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A rematch of Super Bowl LVIII and potential preview of Super Bowl LIX headlines the late afternoon Week 7 betting slate when the Kansas City Chiefs invade Silicon Valley looking to dish out even more misery to the San Francisco 49ers that they’ve toppled each of the last four times they squared off dating back to 2018. The defending champs enter this matchup well rested having been on bye last week, but the rest advantage of the weak variety considering the Niners suited up last Thursday in Seattle where they scored the 36-24 win and cover against the Seahawks.
The lookahead NFL odds for this non-conference bout hit the board with the 49ers lined short 2-point favorites and the Over/Under (O/U) set at 47.5. Action reports from PROLINE+ find 70% of the bets and 55% of the money attached to the road team forcing a market correction down to 1.5. Though the O/U has seen mostly one-way traffic on the over with nearly 80% of the tickets and handle expecting a high scorer to play out—much like the last two meetings—the total was down a full point to 46.5 with heavier vig attached to the high side before jumping back to the opener while penning this breakdown.
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Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers NFL Same Game Parlay:
I don’t know if you’ve heard, but the Chiefs enter this tilt off a bye. They’re something like 1756-1 when coming off the bye under Andy Reid’s watch. All kidding aside, KC has proven to be a lucrative side to back on the NFL money line when rested with it 8-2 straight up over the last 10 occurrences. However, it’s just 5-5 against the closing NFL spread during that stretch with the under cashing in the three most recent instances. The last five times it played rested away from Arrowhead, it’s 4-1 SU but only 2-3 ATS with it failing to cover the last three times.
Does any of that mean anything for this revenge bout with the Niners? Absolutely not! Is it something to take into consideration? Sure. Two aspects of this matchup should be scrutinized in full however. The first: does Kansas City’s passing attack have it in it to take advantage of the injuries San Francisco is currently dealing with in its back seven? Talanoa Hufanga is back on IR. Malik Mustapha will likely miss this game due to an ankle injury. Charvarius Ward will play, but will do so on a gimpy knee. Are you a believer in what JuJu Smith-Schuster did his first time out in place of Rashee Rice? Are you confident in Travis Kelce and Xavier Worthy being Patrick Mahomes primary receivers if you aren’t?
The second aspect that must be dissected is the 49ers slowly dying running game. Jordan Mason had been a savior for Kyle Shanahan the first six weeks of the season. He allowed for the absence of Christian McCaffrey to not sting nearly as much as it should have. Unfortunately, he went down with a shoulder injury last week, and it’s up in the air as to whether he can give it a go in this one. If not, it will be up to Isaac Guerendo and Patrick Taylor Jr. to move the ball on the ground against Chris Jones and the Chiefs’ fifth-ranked run defense that’s allowed short of 89 yards per game and paltry 3.7 yards per carry (#4).
I’m not sure how either of these offenses will approach this game, but honestly, it doesn’t matter much in my opinion. The bottom line is that both defenses will likely dictate the flow and rhythm of the matchup. I don’t understand the enthusiasm for the over, and I think total bettors will come away disappointed. In my view, this game doesn’t have the ingredients needed for a shootout to transpire. Kansas City’s red zone offense has struggled, ranking 25th, and I’m curious to see how San Francisco’s passing game performs with Brock Purdy not having a reliable run game to keep the opposing defense in check. That being said, I expect the 49ers to prioritize protecting home turf, especially after being upset by Arizona in their last home game. While this matchup may not carry the same weight as their last meeting, securing a win will be key. Expect a lower-scoring game than anticipated, with the 49ers prevailing.
- SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-1.5)
- UNDER 47.5
