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October 18, 2024After taking in some rock-solid matchups earlier in the day, the college football betting world will be at a fever pitch Saturday night eager to see what goes down in Austin where the No. 1 Texas Longhorns will be out to score their biggest scalp of the year when Kirby Smart and the No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs invade Texas Memorial Stadium for this program’s first throw down as SEC rivals. The Dawgs won a second straight last week, but fell to a bankroll killing 1-5 against the spread in the process after only logging the 41-31 win as 33-point favorites over Mississippi State. As for the Horns, they dominated Oklahoma in the 120th installment of the Red River shootout to keep their unblemished record intact.
Betting action for this huge tilt wrapped in College Football Playoff ramifications has seen action on both sides of the NCAAF odds and Over/Under. Though action reports from Caesars Sportsbook find UGA taking in 56% of the bets and 54% of the money, the market has corrected 1.5-points in the direction of Texas making the Longhorns 4.5-point favorites. The total is up a full point to 56 from the opener due to 66% of the handle expecting points to hit the board in another top-ranked slugfest. Keep in mind, the “Game of the Year” lines initially had the Bulldogs installed 1.5-point favorites to win this game before the season kicked off. Clearly, CFB bettors and linemakers have much different takes of both teams in real-time.
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Georgia Bulldogs vs. Texas Longhorns CFB Same Game Parlay:
I’ll be the first to admit, Georgia has taken from my bankroll a number of times this college football betting season. I laid the points @Kentucky, @Alabama, and most recently back home against Auburn. It resulted in three straight losses. Because of it, I decided to sit last week’s game out back home against Mississippi State and decided to use that game as a frame of reference to utilize when handicapping the following week’s game against UT—the Horns beat Hail State 35-13 but failed to cover as hefty 37-point favorites.
Though Carson Beck and Co. managed to procure their second highest point tally of the season to go along with 600+ yards of combined offense, the results weren’t pretty. Miss State entered that match with one of the absolute worst overall defenses in the country with it serving up an eye-popping 200+ rushing yards per game (#120). Even so, Beck was forced to step back and throw the pigskin 48 times due to his defenses inability to keep the Bulldogs off the scoreboard. Georgia won 41-31 and grossly failed to cover the spread while only managing 150 rushing yards on 26 total carries. While the 5.8 yard per carry average gets the job done, the output actually improved Mississippi State’s near 6.0 yard per carry allotment for the season!
For one reason or another, the Trevor Etienne experiment just isn’t working out. His 11 carries were turned into 35 yards and a score against arguably one of the worst run defenses in the country. It marked the second time in the last three games that he failed to hit the 60-yard rushing plateau. Now, he’ll be forced to run up against a Texas run defense ranked 23rd overall that’s allowed a nifty 3.0 yards per carry (#10). While Beck has been able to persevere without a running game to this point, Pete Kwiatkowski’s secondary will present him with the toughest test with his kids ranked No. 2 overall in allowing fewer than 126 passing yards per game while picking opposing quarterbacks off seven times. On top of that, Texas gets after the quarterback with it averaging just short of 3.0 sacks per game (#17).
If Georgia can’t run the ball and the O-Line has issues keeping Texas defenders off their QB1’s back, where are the points coming from? And the Dawgs are going to need to score points in this one with Quinn Ewers and Co. coming in with one of the more balanced attacks in the nation. Tre Wisner, coming off a huge game against the Sooners, paces the nation’s No. 40 ranked rushing attack, while No. 3 spearheads a passing attack that’s ripped opposing stop units for north of 306 yards per game (#11) equating to the Horns denting boards for 43+ points per game (#7). I gave Georgia a shot in Tuscaloosa due to Beck being able to shred a questionable Alabama defense. Texas is extremely sound on both sides of the ball. They also get the benefit of hosting this matchup. Look for the mystery to be solved tonight. Georgia is not the team oddsmakers envisioned it to be at the outset of the season, and will be taken out of CFP contention once this one’s put to bed.
- TEXAS LONGHORNS (-4.5)
- TEXAS LONGHORNS OVER 30.5 TEAM TOTAL
- TRE WISNER ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
- TREVOR ETIENNE UNDER 65.5 RUSHING YARDS