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November 1, 2024All eyes will be on the “Big House” for a late afternoon kick on Saturday when the No. 1 ranked Oregon Ducks hit the road to battle the Michigan Wolverines in hopes of avoiding one of the few landmines remaining on the docket. Dan Lanning’s kids have passed every test to this point of the college football betting season, and linemakers at Caesars Sportsbook expect them to come out of this one unscathed as well installing the “Quack Attack” lofty two-possession favorites to get out of Ann Arbor with the win in tow. Hard to argue with as masterful the Ducks have been so far, but keep in mind, Oregon was only lined 3.5-point favorites to defeat Big Blue on the “Game of the Year” lines heading into the regular season. Regardless, the bloated impost hasn’t prevented CFB bettors from hammering the Ducks with nearly 70% of the bets and around 60% of the NCAAF odds money forcing a market correction up to 14.5. The over has also seen a heavier percentage of the action forcing a move to 45.5 with 52% of the handle in favor of the line move. Let’s see if we can’t whip up the ingredients for a winning same-game parlay!
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Oregon Ducks vs. Michigan Wolverines CFB Same Game Parlay:
I wasn’t a believer in the Ducks earlier this season. After struggling to get by Idaho in the season opener as lofty 49-point favorites, I had no issues taking nearly three touchdowns with Boise State and laughed all the way to the bank after Ashton Jeanty went for nearly two spins and three tuddies. I pressed my luck the following week in the Civil War against Oregon State and looked good for a half with the Beavers only trailing 22-14, but Dillon Gabriel and Co. found their footing in the second half to cruise to the 49-14 win and cover. I recouped that loss a few weeks later when Michigan State miraculously kicked the backdoor in late to cover the 21+ points. If you’ve been following my college football same game parlay recommendations here this CFB betting season, you’ll know we gave those profits back the following week when they upset the Ohio State Buckeyes as 3.5-point home dogs.
Since that point, Oregon has been a team on a mission spanking Purdue and Illinois by the aggregate score of 73-9 to cover the closing CFB spread in each game. Both sides of the ball, as well as the special teams, have been firing on all cylinders. Entering Week 10, Oregon is the owner of the nation’s No. 11 ranked offense that’s dented scoreboards for an average of 35 points per game (#24). Backing it up has been a defense allowing fewer than 298 yards (#13) and paltry 15.6 points per game (#10). It gets after opposing quarterbacks with Jordan Burch and his mates averaging 2.7 sacks per game, with the unit really amping up the heat over the last three weeks forcing 1.7 takeaways per game. Oregon is clearly the stronger team in this matchup against a Michigan squad that has struggled mightily to attain its 5-3 SU and 2-6 ATS records.
That being said, I’m very wary of this spot and think it’s one the Ducks will need to have all hands on deck just to get out of with a win let alone a point spread cover as inflated road chalk. While the Wolverines will not be heading back to defend their title in the expanded College Football Playoff, it’s a program that still has pride and won’t just roll over and die allowing the Ducks to have their way. As fully versed Oregon is to combat anything Michigan throws its way, external factors always seem to play a role in these types of situations. Michigan Stadium already got to USC earlier this season in propelling the lesser Wolverines over the Trojans due to a huge game on the ground from Kalel Mullings. I’m not sure who will step up for the home team in this one, but I foresee a max effort being put forth enough to stay within an arm’s reach of the No. 1 team in the country. Points hit the board. Oregon escapes with the win. Big Blue covers.
- MICHIGAN WOLVERINES (+14.5)
- OREGON/MICHIGAN OVER 45.5 POINTS