Who will win the 2022 NCAA Tournament?
March 14, 2022
Celtics at Warriors – ESPN
March 14, 2022
The NCAA Tournament will begin in earnest on Tuesday when the First Four gets underway. This has been a fun addition to March Madness since the tournament expanded to 68 teams in 2011. VCU and UCLA were both No. 11 seeds that went on to reach the Final Four after playing in the First Four, so don’t expect these teams to be pushovers in the Round of 64.
The First Four will be held on March 15-16, 2022, at UD Arena in Dayton, Ohio. The No. 16 seeds will play at 6:40 p.m. ET on both days with Indiana and Wyoming playing afterwards on Tuesday and Notre Dame and Rutgers squaring off on Wednesday. Let’s look at First Four Odds at SugarHouse Sportsbook.
Midwest Region
Texas Southern -3
Texas A&M – Corpus Christi +3
Total 135.5
Texas A&M Corpus Christi is the worst team in the NCAA Tournament according to Ken Pomeroy. The Islanders went 23-11 out of the Southland Conference this year, and they will be making their second NCAA Tournament appearance. They were the No. 4 seed in the Southland Conference Tournament but managed to upset Nicholls and Southeastern Louisiana to claim the conference’s automatic bid. This team crashes the boards well and gets to the foul line a lot, but the Islanders don’t shoot the ball well and send their opponents to the foul line a lot.
Pomeroy’s ratings consider Texas Southern to be a superior team. The Tigers lost their first seven games to start the year, as they took guarantee games to help fund the program. Texas Southern is pretty good on defense, allowing opponents to make 29.6% of their threes and 45.2% of their two-point field goals to rank 13th in effective field goal percentage. The offense isn’t great, but the defense makes the favorite the play.
East Region
Indiana -4
Wyoming +4
Total 132
The advanced metrics love Indiana this year. Although the Hoosiers are playing in the First Four, they are rated 36th in the nation according to Pomeroy. Indiana has impressive wins over St. John’s, Notre Dame, Ohio State, and Purdue, and they knocked off Michigan and Illinois to play its way into the tournament. The Hoosiers have two big men that can give Wyoming fits in Trayce Jackson-Davis and Race Thompson, and the duo are combining to make over 60% of their two-point field goals.
Wyoming has made it to the NCAA Tournament for just the second time in the last two decades. The MWC was able to send four teams to the Big Dance this time, as it’s the toughest the conference has been in years. The Cowboys do have some size, but the Hoosiers will likely be too much.
South Region
Bryant +2
Wright State -2
Total 153
Wright State and Bryant are rated side by side according to the latest Ken Pomeroy metrics. Bryant made history with the program’s first NCAA Tournament appearance by beating rival Wagner in the NEC Championship Game. Peter Kiss is the leading scorer in the country, but he is making under 30% of his threes and did not perform well against bigger names like Houston and Cincinnati.
Scott Nagy has taken Wright State to the NCAA Tournament for the second time in his six years on campus. The Raiders have won at least 20 games in five of his six seasons, and they are deserved favorites to advance over debutantes Bryant. They went on the road to knock off North Carolina State earlier this year, and they finally upended Northern Kentucky with a spot in March Madness on the line.
West Region
Notre Dame -1
Rutgers +1
Total 132
Rutgers had some great wins to its credit in the Big Ten. The Scarlet Knights were able to defeat Purdue, Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Indiana. They fell in their first game of the Big Ten Tournament, but that loss to eventual champion Iowa doesn’t look bad at all.
We saw Notre Dame beat Kentucky in mid-December. The Fighting Irish also were able to beat North Carolina in January, but they don’t have any other quality wins in a down ACC. They live and die by the three and don’t rebound well, so they aren’t a favorite to be confident in.
