SMU vs. Penn State Same Game Parlay Picks, Odds & Predictions

First Round College Football Playoff betting action resumes Saturday afternoon in frigid Happy Valley, where the No. 6 Penn State Nittany Lions will square off against the No. 11 SMU Mustangs with a prime opportunity to advance quarterfinals there for the taking. Penn State, fresh off a hard-fought 45-37 loss to Oregon in the Big Ten Championship, seeks to rebound and hold serve in the program’s first-ever CFP appearance. Meanwhile, SMU enters the matchup off a valiant comeback attempt in the ACC title game, ultimately falling 34-31 to Clemson on a walk-off field goal, which solidified their placement in the 12-team playoff in the eyes of the selection committee. 

Caesars Sportsbook opened Penn State as 8.5-point favorites with the total set at 52.5. Early betting trends show significant support for the Mustangs, who have drawn over 55% of the bets and 76% of the handle. Despite this, sportsbooks have largely held the NCAAF odds at 8.5, though some +9 has started to pop. Total bettors are heavily favoring the over, with 57% of bets and nearly 90% of the money banking on points hitting the board. This action has pushed the total up to 54 at most books with some going as high as 54.5. Penn State looks to capitalize on its home-field advantage and the dynamic play of its offense, while SMU hopes to replicate the resiliency shown in the second half of their last game to advance into the next round.

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SMU Mustangs vs. Penn State Nittany Lions CFB Same Game Parlay:

The success, or lack thereof, of the Mustangs to compete in a hostile environment Saturday afternoon will ultimately come down to Kevin Jennings and his ability to run an efficient offense both with his arm and legs. The Mustangs sophomore quarterback was electric in completing 66% of his passes for 3,050 yards and 22:8 TD/INT ratio. For good measure, he added another 379 yards and 5 TD on the ground. In all, SMU’s offense ranked 22^nd overall in averaging north of 440 yards per game with their running and passing games each ranked amongst the nation’s top-50. It resulted in the Ponies hanging 38.5 points on the board per game (#6). Brashard Smith proved to be the backfield’s primary ball carrier with the junior going for 1,270 yards and 5.9 yards per carry while totaling 18 overall touchdowns. SMU possesses a number of viable pass catchers with Roderick Daniels, Key’Shawn Smith, Jordan Hudson, and Moochie Dixon proving to be the most impactful.

News surfaced earlier this week that Drew Allar will return to Happy Valley for his senior campaign next season. With that, the dual-threat will be under center for OC Andy Kotelnicki for the near future, and that bodes well for the program considering Penn State’s offense was the best it’s been in years with the duo running the show. Allar saw his completion percentage raise 10 points under his new OC’s watch and also threw for a career-high 2,894 yards and 21:7 TD/INT ratio while adding another 279 yards and 6 TD with his legs. The Nittany Lions, against a much tougher schedule strength than SMU opposed, nearly racked up 450 yards per game (#15) and backed it up with just short of 34 points per game (#24). Like the Mustangs, it ran a balanced attack. Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen spearheaded the nation’s 19^th ranked running game, while John Mackey Award winner Tyler Warren paced the receiving corps with a team-high 1,062 receiving yards and 10 overall touchdowns.

Always a bridesmaid and never a bride, Penn State finally has a prime chance to chase a national title in the expanded 12-team playoff. While SMU impressed this season, this matchup against the Nittany Lions could expose their weaknesses. Despite SMU coach Rhett Lashlee’s confidence, Penn State’s discipline and experience in tough environments gives them a major edge. SMU’s offense is potent enough to compete with anyone in this field, but two glaring weaknesses could be their undoing: turnovers (#101) and penalties (#130). Penn State thrives in both areas, setting up an opportunity to control the game and capitalize on mistakes. The Mustangs may keep it close early, fueled by adrenaline, but as the game progresses, Penn State’s talent and execution should shine. Expect the Nittany Lions to pull away in the later stages, leaning on their dominant ground game to secure a margin win and advance, with the combined score falling below market expectations.

• PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS -8.5
• SMU/PENN STATE UNDER 54
• NICHOLAS SINGLETON OVER 62.5 RUSHING YARDS

Bet CFB Same Game Parlays at Caesars Sportsbook