AFC Championship Same Game Parlay Picks – Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs

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Published by Mike Rose on January 23, 2025

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My AFC Championship same game parlay picks take us to Arrowhead Stadium where the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs will compete for a rightful spot in Super Bowl LIX. Sean McDermott’s troops punched a ticket back to the AFC title game for the first time since the COVID year by outlasting the Baltimore Ravens 27-25 in the Division Round. As for Andy Reid’s squad, it sharpied itself back into the conference championship a seventh straight time by scoring the unimpressive 23-14 win and cover for some against the Houston Texans. Buffalo ousted the Chiefs 30-21 at home back in Week 11 in a matchup decided late in the fourth quarter. These teams are 5-5 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) versus each other in the last 10 overall meetings with the over paying out six times.

Caesars Sportsbook opened the NFL odds for this title game tilt at a pick ‘em with the total lined 48. Regardless of only taking in 30% of the written tickets and booked handle, the Chiefs are now installed 1.5-point favorites to advance to LIX. The total has avoided reverse line movement with 60% of the bets and 55% of the money forcing a half-point market correction to 47.5.

Reduced juice betting is one of the best ways for any sports bettor to save money and far too many people don’t take advantage of it. If you are not playing at a sportsbook that offers reduced juice betting then you are simply giving away money.

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Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs NFL Same Game Parlay:

The Bills held up their end of the bargain for us last week in their two-point win over the Ravens which allowed for Buffalo to exceed their team total and the combined score to just barely exceed the 51.5-point Over/Under. Had Mark Andrews held onto that two-point conversion, we would’ve cashed all three legs of the recommended same game parlay in. I came away extremely impressed with the way Buffalo handled itself against what still might be the best team in the AFC. The Ravens did outgain the Bills 416-273 after all, but turnovers proved to be the ultimate decider—along with the dropped pass.

Regardless, I’m confident Buffalo travels with the sustained confidence it played with all season in this do-or-die matchup against the team NFL fans love to hate. Taking the shady refs out of the equation, this game will ultimately come down to Josh Allen—the soon to be named MVP—putting the team on his back and leading it to victory. When paired up against upper echelon opponents, No. 17 has played huge roles in the offensive game plan with OC Joe Brady ramping up the number of times Allen got his number called as a ball carrier. Just last week, he took off and ran with the pigskin 10 times. In the Week 11 throw down with the Chiefs, he carried the ball a season-high 12 times. Double-digit tallies were also logged against the playoff entrant Rams and Lions. This is just another way of saying the over of Allen’s rushing attempts will be comprise within my AFC title game same game parlay picks.

We ended up splitting the SGP in Arrowhead last week largely due to the Texans simply having no answer for Travis Kelce and the offense only scoring one touchdown through three red zone appearances regardless of outgaining the Chiefs 336-212. That largely had to do with Kansas City’s defense turning up the heat evidenced by the whopping eight sacks of C.J. Stroud. Sorry, but that isn’t happening this week with Allen who is darn near close to impossible to sack working behind an O-Line that ranks out as the league’s best pass protection unit. With that, I firmly expect Buffalo to be ahead of the chains throughout and hang another lofty number on the board. In the regular season meeting, Buffalo converted 9 of 15 third down tries, tallied 24 first downs to KC’s 19, and hit pay dirt on 3 of 4 red zone penetrations to hold a near 10 minute advantage in the time of possession battle.

I’m shocked Buffalo isn’t laying points on the NFL spread in this rematch regardless of it taking place in Arrowhead where the Chiefs have won 12 straight dating back to last season. I understand why however—had Caesars opened the Chiefs home dogs, it would’ve been bombarded and likely ended up where it is now. Why take on the extra risk in the same game parlay markets? Especially with Patrick Mahomes doing his best to draw flags whenever he gets the opportunity.

It’s high time this act was put to bed! The Chiefs clock in an unblemished 9-0 SU in front of the hometown faithful, but a bankroll killing 3-6 ATS. Even if the refs hand this game over to Kansas City in the most infuriating of ways, I want nothing to do with backing the reigning champs. Allen has grown tremendously this season, proving he’s ready for a moment like this. I fully expect him to rise to the occasion and get the job done allowing for the BillsMafia to celebrate deep into the wee hours of the night.