Super Bowl LIX Quarterback Prop Picks – Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs
February 4, 2025
Super Bowl LIX Same Game Parlay Picks – Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs
February 4, 2025
While every NFL team aims to establish a strong running game, the league has been dominated by high-powered passing attacks for decades. In today’s game, it’s rare for a rushing attack to serve as the foundation of an offense, but that’s exactly the case for the Philadelphia Eagles heading into Super Bowl LIX. Saquon Barkley delivered a storybook season in his first year as the Eagles’ RB1, and he’ll be a focal point of Philly’s offensive game plan. He’ll look to exploit a Kansas City run defense that hasn’t been as dominant as the units that helped the Chiefs secure back-to-back Super Bowl titles. Easier said than done however with Steve Spagnuolo more than likely to have devised a plan to limit him and Jalen Hurts on the ground.
Let’s not overlook what Kansas City brings to the table in the backfield, as Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt are more than capable of making an impact if given the opportunity. With that in mind, let’s break down the rushing props for all key ball carriers at PROLINE+ and seek out some value in the Super Bowl LIX odds ahead of kickoff from the Caesars Superdome on Sunday, February 9, at 6:30 p.m. ET.
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Bet Super Bowl LIX at PROLINE+
As run dominant Philly had been throughout the regular season as well as in the playoffs, it’s pretty clear as to what the Eagles M.O. will be on offense heading into Super Bowl LIX. Only the Baltimore Ravens ran for more yardage per game than that of the Eagles. Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry spearheaded the league’s No. 1 ranked unit that averaged 188 rushing yards per game and 5.8 yards per carry. The Eagles weren’t too far off the pace in averaging 180 yards per game and 5.1 yards per carry (#4).
The battery of Barkley and Jalen Hurts proved to be even more lethal in the postseason with the Eagles shredding opposing defenses for 228 yards per game and 6.6 yards per carry. The output however was tallied while in neutral and positive game scripts. It remains to be seen just how much Philadelphia elects to run the ball in a negative game script. Though small, Kansas City is currently lined the betting favorite, so it can be ascertained Philly will at one point find itself trailing on the scoreboard—possibly by multiple scores.
Barkley’s rushing yards prop opened 114.5 but has dipped slightly to 113.5, while his rush attempts dropped from 22.5 to 21.5. Interestingly, the Super Bowl LIX prop market remains bullish on No. 26 in both categories, with his combined yardage prop holding steady at 130.5. While Saquon has broken off several big runs throughout the regular season and playoffs, I expect him to battle for every yard in this matchup. Kansas City has allowed 101.8 rushing yards (#8) and 4.2 yards per carry (#9), surrendering only one run of 25+ yards over its last five games. It may be a risky play, but I recommend fading Saquon’s longest rush, believing that sheer volume will be the only ticket to surpassing his lofty rushing total.
- Saquon Barkley Super Bowl LIX RB Prop Pick: Under 25.5 Yards Longest Rush (-120)
Though Philadelphia enters LIX owners of the league’s No. 1 ranked total defense which gave up less than 279 yards per game in the regular season, I foresee Vic Fangio’s unit having its hands full with Patrick Mahomes. This in turn should provide Kansas City ball carriers with ample opportunities to pick up some chunk yardage once the defense adjusts in the secondary. Running lanes will be created against the weaker link of an Eagles defense that played true to its seasonal averages in the playoffs, but did serve up hefty tallies to RB1s of the Packers and Rams en route to punching a ticket to the big game.
I understand that Pacheco has taken a backseat to Kareem Hunt since returning from injury, but this number is shockingly low for a Kansas City Chiefs running back that will have had two full weeks to rest his surgically repaired leg. While he logged just five carries to Hunt’s 17 in the AFC Championship Game and has only accrued 30 total rushing yards in the second season, I fully expect Andy Reid to feature him more against an Eagles run defense (#10) that is far more vulnerable than its elite secondary (#1).
Pacheco’s relentless motor never stops, and he posted 76 yards and a touchdown, including a 24-yard run, when he faced this defense in Super Bowl LVII. While Philly’s stop unit has improved since then, I refuse to believe No. 10 won’t play a more significant role than his current player props suggest. Pacheco is being undervalued, making him a strong value play across the board.
- Isiah Pacheco Super Bowl LIX RB Prop Pick: Over 22.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
