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Now might be the perfect time to throw down on a longshot to win the 149th Kentucky Derby. In the previous 148 runnings a few savvy bettors, or should I say lucky bettors, have cashed a massive payday by backing the most unlikely dogs. We saw an 80-1 longshot triumph just last year with Rich Strike toppling the field. The day before the horse race, Rich Strike was added as a replacement. Not only did he win the race he did so from the 20th post becoming only the second horse to win from that position. It was the second-biggest upset in Derby history.
In 2018 Country House claimed the then second-biggest upset, though it was controversial since he wasn’t first to cross the finish line. The initial winner was disqualified for interference giving the win to Country House at 65/1. And there were others just in the last two decades. Mine That Bird (2009) and Giacomo (2005) both went off at 50/1. We’ll check the latest horse race odds at BetRivers sportsbook to see where we can potentially win some cash on the Run for the Roses.
The 2023 Kentucky Derby takes place on Sunday, May 6, from Churchill Downs in Lexington, KY. Post time is 6:57 p.m. ET. The race airs live on NBC with updated betting odds available at BetRivers.
2023 Kentucky Derby Longshot Odds
Continuar +6050
Lord Miles +6050
Sun Thunder +6050
Raise Cain +5050
Reincarnate +4550
Rocket Can +4050
Disarm +4050
Hit Show +4050
Jaces Road +4050
Skinner +1818
Verifying +1818
Confidence Game +1618
Kingsbarns +1618
Mage +1418
Two Phils +1418
Practical Move +1217
Derma Sotogake +1190
Angel of Empire +925
Tapit Trice +799
Forte +345
No favorite has won the Derby since 2018 and three of the last four winners went off with double-digit odds. In between Rich Strike and Country House, Mandaloun was a 27/1 horse racing pick in the 2021 Derby. It’s easy to name a favorite based on past results with Forte having the most success to be placed at the top of the odds board. But no horse has ever run a mile and a quarter and they certainly haven’t raced in front of over 100,000 people or in a field of 20. And only a handful has tested the iconic horse race track called Churchill Downs.
There are a few horses who got a bad rap and higher odds based on bloodlines and other extenuating factors. Just like people, horses can have good and bad days when competing. And there are things I mentioned that put the field on a level surface. That’s probably one reason why we’ve seen some good ( as in big ) upsets in recent years.
Verifying ran neck and neck with second favorite Tapit Trice at the G1 Blue Grass Stakes last month. Despite his strong effort in a nine-furlong race, Verifying has a reputation of being limited at longer distances. Anyone who saw the Blue Grass would likely say otherwise. At 18/1 he’s not a huge dog, but Verifying does have plenty of value based on his recent showings.
Odds will change constantly up until post time so it’s important to check the numbers. At the time of this writing Hit Show and Disarm had the same odds of around 40/1, putting them in the extreme longshot category. An impressive 5½ length win at the G3 Withers Stakes in February got Hit Show on the map and he has a strong handler in Brad Cox. His stock plummeted, though, with a loss to 59/1 longshot Lord Miles in the G2 Wood Memorial Stakes. A tight grouping prevented him from using his speed and contact at the midway point disrupted his stride. If avoided Hit Show is sitting in a different spot on the odds board.
Disarm snuck into the top 20 in the Derby points race with a third in the Lexington Stakes last month. He also finished second to Derby contestant Kingsbarns in the G2 Louisiana Derby with a nice closing finish making things a little more interesting. A faster pace at the start will make his closing kick more damaging. It’s always risky placing bets on horse racing and especially on the Kentucky Derby with so many unknowns and variables. Longshots have flourished in recent years and these are the best picks to continue that trend.
