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May 4, 2023
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May 4, 2023
The balance of power shifted in the USFL with the New Orleans Breakers the only unbeaten entering Week 4 following their 45-31 victory over previously undefeated Birmingham. The Breakers shredded the Stallions defense for nearly 500 yards handing the defending champs just their second setback since the league started play last year. The Breakers look to stay undefeated with a matchup against another strong opponent in the New Jersey Generals on Sunday. Mike Riley’s gang handed Michigan its first loss last week and will look to do the same in a second straight week. The Generals were catching 5-points last week and are a 2.5-point dog on the USFL betting line in Week 4.
The betting week opens with teams heading in different directions. Houston earned its first victory in thrilling style, 30-26, keeping Memphis with a zero in the W column. And for Philadelphia the Case Cookus train was derailed again. Cookus tossed a pair of interceptions for the second straight game and the Stars dropped two in a row for the first time since the reboot. Despite their recent unsettling play, Philly opened as a 2-point favorite at BetRivers sportsbook. I had another good week with my USFL picks against the spread going 3-1 raising my season record to 10-2. I’ll take that any day of the week. My only loss was backing Philly -6.5. I’ll look to continue the heater with my Week 4 USFL picks.
USFL Week 4 Schedule
Houston Gamblers (1-2) at Philadelphia Stars (1-2)
Date and Time: Saturday, May 6, 1 p.m. ET
Opening Odds: Philadelphia -2, O/U 45.5
Gamblers at Stars TV Coverage: FOX
Maybe the Houston Gamblers learned how to win. Since last season they lost a handful of games when leading in the final minutes, but they changed the tune against Memphis getting a 10-yard scoring pass from Kenji Bahar with 18 seconds left. Memphis had taken the lead less than two minutes earlier. Bahar has improved every week going 22 of 36 for 235 yards and a pair of TDs. Mark Thompson added 81 yards on the ground and the Gamblers amassed 365 total yards and were 7 of 14 on third down. With no running game the Stars are relying on Cookus to carry the offense, and he failed the last two games. Philly averages only 52.3 rushing yards and are sixth in total offense. Trying to do too much, Cookus has four picks in the last two games and last year’s highest scoring offense is averaging only 16.7 points.
USFL Prediction: Philadelphia -2 / OVER 45.5
Memphis Showboats (0-3) at Michigan Panthers (2-1)
Date and Time: Saturday, May 6, 7:30 p.m. ET
Opening Odds: Michigan -6.5, O/U 44
Showboats at Panthers TV Coverage: NBC
In a 10-game season you can eliminate yourself by losing the first four contests. And Memphis needs a win to avoid that. They came close last week and were within seconds of beating Houston only to have the Gamblers drive 66 yards in the final two minutes for the game-winning score. After getting only a safety in a 40-point loss to Birmingham in Week 2, the Showboats showed off an offense behind Cole Kelley, who threw for 307 yards and two TDs. The ground game remains an issue, though, after netting 21 yards on 15 attempts last week. And Michigan’s defense has been solid under Mike Nolan with fewer opportunities for Memphis to hit paydirt.
USFL Prediction: Michigan -6.5 / UNDER 44
New Orleans Breakers (3-0) at New Jersey Generals (2-1)
Date and Time: Sunday, May 7, 3 p.m. ET
Opening Odds: New Orleans -2.5, O/U 47
Breakers at Generals TV Coverage: NBC
The undefeated Breakers look to continue their hot start in what’s easily the game of the week. With McLeod Bethel-Thompson going 20 of 28 for 283 yards and three scores, and Wes Hills rushing for 191 yards, New Orleans ravaged Birmingham’s defense for 483 total yards. The Breakers lead the league averaging almost 400 yards and 35 points with Bethel-Thompson the USFL’s leading passer, Hills the leading rusher and Sage Surratt tops in receiving yards. New Jersey has won two straight following a loss to Birmingham and boasts the top ranked defense, which will get tested. New Orleans ranks second to Jersey in total defense and the Generals are third in total offense so this one could go either way. In that case I’ll back the points on the USFL betting line.
USFL Prediction: New Jersey +2.5 / OVER 47
Birmingham Stallions (2-1) at Pittsburgh Maulers (1-2)
Date and Time: Sunday, May 7, 6:30 p.m. ET
Opening Odds: Birmingham -8, O/U 43.5
Stallions at Maulers TV Coverage: FS1
A big USFL favorite this week, the Stallions look to rebound after a rare loss. And they have the perfect opponent in the final game of Week 4. Birmingham’s defense can get well in a hurry against a club that averages just 174.7 yards and 13 points, the worst numbers in the league. Birmingham couldn’t get off the field last week to give Alex McGough a chance to score points. New Orleans converted 11 of 13 third downs and possessed the football for 13 more minutes. That won’t happen this week so I’ll back the champs as my USFL best bet despite laying the most points.
USFL Prediction: Birmingham -8 / UNDER 43.5
Check out the latest USFL betting odds at BetRivers.
