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I swung and missed terribly fading the Seattle Seahawks last year in suggesting a wager be made on the under of their season win total odds at BetRivers Sportsbook. Not only did Pete Carroll’s troops exceed the impost with relative ease, they punched a ticket to the playoffs making it the tenth time they did so under his watch through 13 seasons of calling the shots in the Emerald City. However, nobody expected Geno Smith to go onto have the season he did or for the rookies selected in the 2022 NFL Draft to make such big impacts on both sides of the ball right out of the chute. Moving onto the 2023-24 NFL betting season, the Seattle Seahawks now find their win total odds all the way up 8.5 which equates to a three-game northbound jump from the prior year. This team got to play with house money a season ago, but now there are expectations of competing for the NFC West title which would coincide with yet another ticket punched to the second season. Seattle has exceeded its win total eight of the 13 seasons Carroll has overlooked the team which looks to be improved defensively via the draft and free agency. After being bearish about this squad last season, I’m whistling a different tune heading into year two Geno’s revival!
Seattle Seahawks: Let Geno Cook!
The Seattle Seahawks showcased their resilience and determination to silence all naysayers and reach the postseason. Led by QB Geno Smith, who had a career resurgence, the Seahawks dramatically exceeded my expectations. Despite trading Russell Wilson to Denver, the team rallied behind Smith and managed to secure nine wins. Smith’s performance was impressive, ranking No. 7 in success rate and No. 16 in EPA among his quarterback counterparts. The Seahawks’ offense, featuring star wide receivers D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, finished No. 13 in EPA to rank out as the No. 11 ranked passing attack. However, their rushing game struggled, ranking No. 19 in rushing EPA and dead last in rush success rate. Rookie RB Kenneth Walker III had an inconsistent season, but his explosive runs helped boost the team’s overall output. Seattle did however face challenges on the defensive side of the ball. They ranked No. 26 in EPA and No. 19 against the pass. Their run defense was particularly weak, finishing No 26 in EPA and allowing the highest yards after catch (YAC) in the league. Despite these struggles, the Seahawks’ young secondary, including rookie cornerbacks Tariq Woolen and Coby Bryant, showed promise. While the season ultimately ended with an ugly 41-23 defeat to the division rival 49ers in the wild-card round, there is much to be excited about this team heading into 2023-24.
Bet the Seattle Seahawks Season Wins Total at BetRivers Sportsbook
Seattle Seahawks Season Wins Total: 8.5
The Seahawks’ schedule for the 2023-24 season poses certain challenges. Based on their opponents’ combined win total from the previous season, the Seahawks will be facing the No. 12 ranked schedule in terms of difficulty. Additionally, their opponents’ projected win total for this season is 155, making it the sixth-hardest schedule in the league. The Seahawks will face nine teams with winning records from the previous season, including five teams that won 12 or more games. However, Sharp Football Analysis has Seattle playing to the tenth easiest schedule strength of all 32 teams which is quite a difference from running up against what was expected to be the eleventh toughest just a short season ago. The schedule looks more than doable early and late, but there is a nasty spot from Week 12-15 that they’ll oppose three teams listed amongst the favorites to win Super Bowl LVIII.
Case for the Over
There are several reasons to believe the Seahawks can surpass their listed win total of 8.5 games in the upcoming season. Despite initial doubts, Smith proved himself as a capable signal caller throughout the 2022-23 football betting season. While there may be concerns about a potential regression, Smith’s overall success provides optimism for a team that would’ve been left for dead if not for his revival. If Smith can maintain his level of play or even improve, the Seahawks’ offense has the potential to be a force to be reckoned with. Seattle also made significant additions to their offense during the offseason. In the draft, they selected WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who has the potential to make an immediate impact playing alongside Metcalf and Lockett. With defenses forced to focus on the duo, Smith-Njigba will have plenty of opportunities to shine out of the slot. While the defense struggled, the front office made moves to address their weaknesses. The addition of CB Devon Witherspoon through the draft is expected to provide an immediate boost to the secondary. Additionally, the signings of defensive lineman Dre’Mont Jones and the return of LB Bobby Wagner bring experience and talent to the up-and-coming defense.
Case for the Under
While there are reasons to be optimistic about the Seahawks’ chances of exceeding their win total, there are also potential factors that could lead to the team falling short of expectations. Yes, Geno Smith had a breakout season in 2022, but there is the possibility of regression in the upcoming season as evidenced by his fall-off at the tail end of last year. As defenses analyzed more film on him, they were able to find ways to exploit the weaknesses in his game. If Smith struggles to maintain his performance level, it could hinder the Seahawks’ ability to win games. The schedule also presents challenges, particularly during a brutal stretch from weeks 12 to 15. Facing the Dallas Cowboys, San Francisco 49ers, and Philadelphia Eagles in consecutive games will test the Seahawks’ bravado. These teams are among the best in the NFC and will provide tough competition. If the Seahawks struggle during that stretch, it could hinder their ability to win nine or more games for the second straight year.
Seattle Seahawks Schedule
Week 1: vs. Rams
Week 2: at Lions
Week 3: vs. Panthers
Week 4: at Giants (MNF)
Week 5: Bye Week
Week 6: at Bengals
Week 7: vs. Cardinals
Week 8: vs. Browns
Week 9: at Ravens
Week 10: vs. Commanders
Week 11: at Rams
Week 12: vs. 49ers (TNF)
Week 13: at Cowboys (TNF)
Week 14: at 49ers
Week 15: vs. Eagles
Week 16: at Titans
Week 17: vs. Steelers
Week 18: at Cardinals
Seattle Seahawks Season Win Total Analysis
I’m still picking at the humble pie I was forced to eat following my complete lack of faith for the Seahawks entering last season. I seriously put down on paper that it was entirely possible the team could find itself 0-10 going into the Week 11 bye. They had already exceeded their win total once that off week arrived! I didn’t truly believe that statement evidenced by hitting the Seattle moneyline in the season opener against Russ and the Broncos, but I certainly didn’t expect eight more wins to be accrued either. I really like the moves upper management made to shore up the roster in the offseason, and also believe Smith will build off his solid 2022 campaign and prove to the franchise he was worth the vote of confidence after being inked to a new 3-year deal. Though San Francisco remains the cream of the division crop, the Seahawks will have every opportunity to steal the title away should the Niners have issues under center or their nasty schedule get the best of them. With that, I’m backing the over of Seattle’s win total at BetRivers and also throwing a beer money flier on their alternate of 10.5-games at a +205 ROI.
Seattle Seahawks Season Win Total Prediction: Over 8.5 -155
Bet NFL Win Totals at BetRivers Sportsbook
