College Football Week 1 Thursday Night Picks, Predictions, and Odds

Unfortunately, I didn’t start the new college football season on a positive note. I only managed to go 1-2 ATS on my three picks as I chose the wrong side in the matchup between Navy and Notre Dame. It was either go with the ‘Under’ or Navy for me, and I chose the latter instead of the former to my detriment. Notre Dame completely shut down Navy’s triple option, showing why Army decided to move away from the system this offseason.

In the other two games, I picked a winner with new FBS side Jacksonville State against UTEP, but I was very wrong when it came to Vanderbilt. I suspected the Commodores would smash the Rainbow Warriors just like they did last season, but they were somewhat fortunate to get the victory. Neither team could run the ball, but Hawaii was able to move the chains better through the air than Vanderbilt. However, the Commodores finished +2 in the turnover department and had a kickoff return touchdown to hold onto a 35-28 victory.

College Football Week 1 Betting Odds at BetRivers Sportsbook

Florida +7
Utah -7
Total 46

There was some speculation that Cam Rising wouldn’t be available for Utah in Week 1 after tearing his ACL in last year’s Rose Bowl loss to Penn State, but he was listed at the top of the depth chart on Friday. That’s a huge relief considering backup QB Brandon Rose suffered an injury in practice two weeks ago.

Still, it’s hard to rely too much on Rising just eight months after tearing an ACL. Additionally, top tight end Brant Kuithe is also coming back from a torn ACL, so there is legitimate reason to be concerned about the state of this offense. Utah is ranked 12^th in Preseason SP+ Rankings coming into its first game, but those are big questions that need to be answered.

That puts Florida in a strong position to cover the touchdown per the college football betting odds. Even though the Gators lost a top five pick in quarterback Anthony Richardson to the NFL Draft, this team didn’t rely a lot on Richardson last year, and the defense is expected to be improved. Florida has recruited well too, so the depth should be more of a factor in Billy Napier’s second season in Gainesville.

Play: Florida +7

Kent State +37
UCF -37
Total 57.5

Kent State is currently projected to be the second-worst team in college football this season. The Golden Flashes were competitive last season and went 5-4 against non-Power Five opponents, but that was before Sean Lewis decided to become the offensive coordinator at Colorado. Lewis is a dynamic recruiter that brought an energy to the program, and his departure led to an exodus of talent. Kent State’s best quarterback, running back, and wide receiver all departed the program in the offseason, so the Golden Flashes are very much behind the eight ball.

Meanwhile, UCF is finally a Power Five program after years of being a fly in the ointment for the bigger brands in college football. The Knights will kick off their Big 12 tenure against Kent State, and they are going to take it to the Golden Flashes. Gus Malzahn runs a very up-tempo offense, so the Knights are going to name the score against the Golden Flashes in order to make sure everything is humming before next week’s showdown against Boise State in Idaho.

Play: UCF -37

NC State -14.5
Connecticut +14.5
Total 46.5

Jim Mora had a surprisingly strong first season with UConn in 2022. Mora showed that it wasn’t just Randy Edsall that could win in Storrs by leading the Huskies to six wins and a bowl appearance. This team won three games as an underdog of 10 or more points by the college football betting line, and they were particularly frisky over the second half of the year.

That could spell trouble for a North Carolina State squad that has won at least eight games in five of the last six seasons. The Wolfpack will likely take a step back this year as Devin Leary left the team in the offseason, and Dave Doeren responded by bringing in Virginia offensive coordinator Robert Anae and QB Brennan Armstrong. Continuity is fine, but Armstrong threw seven touchdowns and 12 interceptions last year in an offense that didn’t score a lot of points, so this is something of a head scratching move.

Play: Connecticut +14.5