NFL Week 4 Line Move Plays
September 29, 2023Week 4 NFL Totals Best Bets
September 29, 2023If you don’t hit all the bets on a NFL teaser it’s a bad week. And I had a bad Week 3. Individually it wasn’t awful with two of my teams hitting and I didn’t even need to tease the line in those games. However, I might have bought into the Jacksonville Jaguars prematurely since it was their loss as a big favorite that cost me a winning ticket. The Jags closed as a 9.5-point favorite on the NFL betting line against Houston and even teasing the line down didn’t matter. The Jags were one of three teams laying at least 9-points at BetRivers sportsbook to lose outright in Week 3.
There are a few tips to follow when playing a teaser. Buying points to cross over key numbers is a big one. Also, it’s not a good idea to give away points. That happens when you go over the number 0 moving from an underdog to a favorite or vice versa. Those are just suggestions and we’ve seen a few games work in our favor when following those guidelines. It didn’t matter last week, though. Teasing the Chargers from +1 to +7 wasn’t needed since they beat Minnesota 28-24. And backing Miami at -0.5 on the teased NFL betting line was irrelevant since the Fins won by 50. I had success last year on my NFL teasers and will look for my first payout in Week 4.
NFL Week 4 Teaser Best Bets
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles
Opening Line: Eagles -8
Teaser Line: Eagles -2
Opening as an 8-point NFL favorite this week, the Philadelphia Eagles looked much better beating Tampa on Monday night improving to 3-0. The offense looked crisper totaling 472 yards with 201 of those on the ground. Jalen Hurts added 277 passing yards and a pair of scores. It was Philly’s defense that looked even better, though. The group allowed few opportunities to Tampa holding the Bucs to 174 total yards with a pair of takeaways. And we saw how flustered Sam Howell was against Buffalo’s pressure. Howell threw four picks and was sacked nine times in a 37-3 loss.
Teasing the line in this matchup covers some areas discussed in the opener. Dropping Philly from -8 to -2 crosses over key numbers 7 and 3. And in case the Eagles needed more motivation it was a home loss to Washington last season that stopped their winning streak at eight games. The Eagles had won three straight and seven of nine before that upset 32-21 loss as an 11-point favorite.
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
Opening Line: Ravens +3
Teaser Line: Ravens +9
Boasting the NFL’s top ranked defense will likely push a lot of the betting action toward the Cleveland Browns in this AFC North contest against the Baltimore Ravens. Holding two of three opponents to a field goal was impressive and Pittsburgh needed two defensive TDs to hang 26 on the Brownies. But the group hasn’t faced a QB like Lamar Jackson this season and after a clumsy performance in a loss to Indy, the Ravens will be fired up.
A damaged Joe Burrow, green Kenny Pickett and aged Ryan Tannehill couldn’t do much against the Browns. Jackson gives Cleveland’s defense plenty to think about and he’s had some big games against Cleveland in the past. This is another teased line that goes over key numbers and I expect the Ravens will rebound from last week’s disappointing setback making them my NFL best bet getting 9-points.
Denver Broncos at Chicago Bears
Opening Total: 46.5
Teaser Line: 40.5
After three weeks of betting on NFL games you have a good idea of where teams stand in the league’s hierarchy. The Denver Broncos and Chicago Bears have failed in their attempts to stop opponents with their respective defenses among the worst in football. The Broncos were embarrassed last week allowing over 700 yards in a 70-20 loss to Miami. Comparatively the Bears were stifling in their loss to Kansas City. Chicago trailed 41-0 after three quarters before shutting out the Chiefs JV team in the fourth quarter.
We still need points to reach the OVER and somehow I don’t think that’s going to be a problem, at least not for Denver. Russell Wilson had his second straight 300-yard passing game and the Broncos average 23.0 points. And if Justin Fields decides to play instead of blaming the coaching staff for his lack of production, the Bears will help to cash the OVER on the teased total.
Check out the latest NFL betting odds at BetRivers.