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The Miami Dolphins were able to make things interesting through three quarters against the Philadelphia Eagles in last week’s installment of Sunday Night Football, but spit the bit over the final 15 minutes and ended up falling by a 31-17 final count ultimately failing to cover the closing 3-point NFL odds. The game also fell short of going over the closing O/U even though 27 points dented the board in the first half! Unfortunately for NFL bettors, the Week 8 matchup between the Chicago Bears and Los Angeles Chargers wasn’t flexed out for a more attractive pairing. LA seems to make it a point to play down to its opposition, so anything can happen when digging into the game’s betting odds at Caesars Sportsbook. The following is a same game parlay I’ve cooked up with the intent of closing NFL Sunday out with a bang – SLAM YOUR MAN!!
Bet on the National Football League at Caesars Sportsbook
Though the Chargers enter this matchup losers of two straight both SU and ATS while the Bears have logged wins in two of their last three games, Caesars initially lined the Bolts hefty 9.5-point favorites and set the total at 48.5 on the openers. The NFL betting market attacked both offerings lowering the point spread a full point down to -8.5 and the O/U two full points down to 46.5. Evidently, a high majority of the action expects the Bears to not get embarrassed in a likely low scorer.
I’m not exactly sure I agree with that sentiment, but it’s tough to ignore the fact that the Bolts are heading in a downward spiral while the Bears have been playing a much more competitive brand of football even with Justin Fields out of the mix. That being said, Brandon Staley and Matt Eberflus each sit amongst the betting favorites to become the first coach axed this season so nobody looks safe heading into the Week 9 non-con battle.
Do the Chargers deserve to lay this type of number? In short, yes – provided the passing attack lives up to its pedigree and doesn’t look anything like the unit that ran up against the Cowboys and Chiefs over the last two weeks. If not, there’s absolutely no reason Los Angeles should be receiving this type of respect from linemakers. Granted, Dallas and Kansas City possess a much better defense than that of Chicago, but this is year four of the Justin Herbert era and he just broke the bank in the offseason with the expectation he’d excel against any and all defenses.
While ranked amongst the top half of the league in the most pertinent of stat categories, the Chargers outputs have been on the decline in recent weeks. The negative regression began immediately once the offense lost field stretcher Mike Williams back in Week 3. For one reason or another, the coaching staff has been unable to coach up Quentin Johnston to replace his downfield strike services. This could be the spot it all comes together. The Bears have surprisingly been very finicky versus the run (No. 5), but has had all sorts of issues preventing opposing aerial attacks from going off with it serving up north of 257 yards per game (No. 29) and 7.1 yards per attempt (No. 27). On top of all that, it’s serving up 2.0 passing TD per game!
Chicago’s 33.1 percent pressure rate ranks amongst the bottom third of the league (No. 22). The lack of harassment has produced a league-worst 1.4 sacks per game. The Chargers O-Line has allowed 15 total sacks through six played games which equates to a 6.6 percent sack rate allowed (No. 18). Having already squared off against the top-2 teams in the league in terms of pressure rate (Dallas/Miami), Herbert is likely to have ample time to survey the field and connect with his pass catchers for big downfield gainers all night long.
Only the Eagles, Seahawks, Cardinals, Lions, and Steelers have served up more counting stats to slot receivers than that of the 2023-24 Chicago Bears. You know what that means! This is going to be a Keenan Allen night with the veteran wide receiver coming off his worst showing of the season after turning his nine targets into 4 receptions and 55 paltry yards against the Chiefs. I’m expecting big things from No. 13 in this juicy matchup with 70+ percent of his routes coming out of the slot.
I don’t expect LA to run away and his in this one. It’s simply just not part of the team’s DNA under the current coaching staff. As such, I’ll buy off some of the chalk and bank on the Bolts covering a more agreeable number with the battery of Herbert and Allen instilling most of the damage. If not, this team is best served being catapulted into the sun with the schedule looking nothing short of a nightmare over the next five weeks.
Los Angeles Chargers -6
Justin Herbert 300+ Passing Yards
Justin Herbert Over 1.5 Passing TD
Keenan Allen 100+ Receiving Yards
Keenan Allen Anytime TD
Bet $100 to Win $1000 at Caesars Sportsbook on this Same Game Parlay
