March Madness, the NCAA basketball tournament, is famous for its unpredictability and exciting upsets. Every year, there is hope among fans and bettors alike that an underdog team might defy the odds and make a strong run through the tournament. There is a lot of money to be made betting on underdogs, but doing so requires a keen sense of the dynamics involved. Below are some good March Madness betting strategies, especially related to underdogs.
Understanding the Underdog Phenomenon
March Madness has long been particularly fertile ground for upsets. The single-elimination format of the tournament increases the likelihood that lower-seeded teams will beat higher-seeded ones. For example, in the 2022 tournament, the No. 15-seed Saint Peter’s team shocked the basketball world by knocking off the second-seeded Kentucky Wildcats, one of the greatest upsets in the tournament’s history. Those kind of Cinderella stories are popular with the public and usually result in a lot of betting on
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Statistical Trends Favoring Underdogs
Many recent trends showed that betting sharply on underdogs could be profitable. No. 15 seeds have beaten No. 2 seeds 11 times since 1985, and seven of those wins have happened since 2012. This trend indicates that upsets by lower seeds are more common than in the past, when such results were historically rare. Farther down the board, had a bettor made a $100 moneyline bet on every underdog to win for the NCAA Tournament since 2017, he would’ve turned a profit of roughly down exactly $1,132. This number shows the potential profitability of betting on underdogs.
Betting Strategies for Underdogs
- Selective Betting: Use Selective Betting: Instead of sprinkling bets on every underdog available, a better method is to study the matchups and find unique teams that have an actual chance of winning. You should make sure to review the stats in the following areas: team performance, injuries and historical matchups etc. Logic suggests placing bets on upset factors: if a No. 15 seed boasts a loaded roster and performs well against higher seeds in the regular season, the bet could be worth placing.
- Moneyline vs. Spread Bets: Betting on the moneyline can pay off better, but betting on the spread is a better betting option. That is a more conservative play (underdogs don’t need to win outright to cover the spread). If, for example, a No. 12 seed is given a +5.5 point spread against a No. 5 seed, it means they can lose by five points or fewer and the bet is still a good one. This strategy works especially well in closely matched games.
- Focus on Early Rounds: The first round of the tournament often presents the best opportunities for underdog betting. As teams settle into the tournament, the likelihood of upsets tends to decrease. Bettors should capitalize on the initial chaos of March Madness, where lower-seeded teams often have the element of surprise on their side.
- Utilizing Advanced Metrics: Analyzing advanced statistics can provide valuable insights into potential upsets. Metrics such as offensive and defensive efficiency, rebounding rates, and turnover ratios can help bettors gauge the strengths and weaknesses of teams. Websites that specialize in sports analytics can be invaluable resources for this type of analysis and numbers.
- Monitoring Public Sentiment: The betting public tends to like popular teams, which can distort the odds in favor of underdogs. Keep an eye on betting lines and public tendencies, which can help you spot opportunities where you can take advantage of advantageous odds. Value comes from when a lot of money is bet on a favorite, which can then mess with the line and create an opportunity to find value in wagering on the underdog.
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The Role of Transfers and NIL
College basketball has been irrevocably altered by the transfer portal and Name, Image and Likeness (NIL) deals. Underdog teams have thus been more able to nab talent themselves — enough talent to go toe to toe with teams with higher seeds. That has made betting on dogs more attractive now. A former high school star who leaves a powerhouse program for a mid-major can instantly make that team much better.
Conclusion
College basketball betting during March Madness is a fun and potentially lucrative hobby, especially if you like betting on underdogs. With advanced betting strategies, statistical analysis, and knowledge of the continually changing landscape of college basketball, bettors can improve their odds of winning. Because no strategy is foolproof and some teams may rise before falling, betting on upsets based on data can be a foolproof strategy. With the tournament looming, bettors may dwell and prepare — but should also be mindful, open and willing to pounce at the right time.
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