When you consider No. 1 vs. No. 16 seeds in March Madness betting there are some things to keep in mind. While upsets of a No. 1 seed at the hand of the No. 16 seed have been more prevalent in recent years, it still doesn’t happen that often. And covering the March Madness betting spread for No. 16 seeds is not easy either. In last year’s NCAA Tournament, the No. 1 seeds won and covered all four games against the No. 16 seeds. Remember that No.16 seeds have finished within 10 points of a top seed just 10 times since 2001. Let’s look at NCAA Tournament No. 1 vs. No. 16 stats.

Historically, No. 1 seeds have overwhelmingly dominated No. 16 seeds in the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament. Since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, No. 1 seeds have won 150 of 152 matchups against No. 16 seeds as of 2024.

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No. 16 Seeds to Beat a No. 1 Seed

UMBC (2018) vs. Virginia

  • Score: UMBC 74, Virginia 54
  • Significance: First time a No. 16 seed beat a No. 1 seed.
  • Key Player: Jairus Lyles (UMBC) – 28 points
  • Virginia entered as the #1 overall seed and ACC champions.

Fairleigh Dickinson (2023) vs. Purdue

  • Score: FDU 63, Purdue 58
  • Significance: Second-ever 16-over-1 upset.
  • Key Player: Sean Moore (FDU) – 19 points
  • Purdue’s Struggles: Zach Edey (Purdue) had 21 points, but Purdue shot poorly and was overwhelmed by the pressure of FDU.

Close Calls – 16 Seeds Almost Winning

  • 1989 – Georgetown 50, Princeton 49 – Princeton led late but missed a final shot. Coach Pete Carril’s famous “backdoor cuts” almost shocked the world.
  • 1989 – Oklahoma 72, ETSU 71 – ETSU had a last-second shot but missed. The Sooners survived a big scare in this one.
  • 1990 – Michigan State 75, Murray State 71 (OT) – First-ever 1-vs-16 overtime game, but the Racers couldn’t pull off the upset.
  • 1996 – Purdue 73, Western Carolina 71 – Western Carolina missed a potential game-winning three-point shot.
  • 2014 – Florida 67, Albany 55 – The game was tied with under 10 minutes left before Florida pulled away.

Blowouts by a No. 1 Seed

  • Kansas 110, Prairie View A&M 52 (58 points, largest margin, 1998)
  • The highest scoring matchup took place in 1987 when North Carolina won by a score of 113-82 over Penn.
  • The lowest score in a 1 vs. 16 game was 99 points, which happened twice. Georgetown’s 50-49 win over Princeton in 1989, and UCLA’s 70-29 win over Mississippi Valley State in 2008.

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Fun Facts

  • Most appearances as a No. 1 seed: Kansas (16 times)
  • No. 1 seeds winning the title: 25 times since 1985

No. 1 vs. No. 16 Betting Statistics (Historical Trends)

  • Against the Spread (ATS): No. 1 seeds are 80-70-2 ATS (53%).
  • Straight-Up (SU): No. 1 seeds are 150-2 SU (98.7%).
  • Over/Under (O/U): Generally leans to the UNDER, as 16 seeds can oftentimes struggle to score.

March Madness No. 1 vs. No. 16 Seed Betting Insights

  • Since 2005, No. 1 seeds are 55% ATS in first-round matchups.
  • Blowouts lead to backdoor covers from 16 seeds late in games.
  • Average spread: -24 to -28 points for No. 1 seeds.
  • Largest spread ever: -35 (Kansas vs. Prairie View A&M, 1998).
  • Smallest spread ever: -12 (Purdue vs. FDU, 2023) – resulted in an outright upset.

Over/Under Trends

  • Totals usually range from 130-145 points.
  • Unders tend to hit more (55%) due to 16 seeds struggling to score.
  • Blowout potential does mean garbage-time points will impact totals unpredictably.

Best March Madness No. 1 vs. No. 16 Betting Strategies

Lean Under in Total Points: No. 1 seeds dominate, but 16 seeds rarely score enough to push the total over.
Take 16 Seeds ATS in High-Spread Games: 16 seeds cover more often when spreads are -25 or higher.
Live Betting: If a No. 1 team starts slow, the live spread will adjust, creating value on the favorite.
Moneyline Parlay No. 1 Seeds: While ML bets offer little value, they are safe for parlays.

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NCAAB BETCRIS