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The 2024 United States Presidential election is likely to be the most heated and controversial in modern history. There are several twists and turns that could change the nominations of both major parties. And there is the possibility of independent and third-party candidates that could tip the balance in states where the margin of victory is already razor thin. Additionally, there is the possibility of war, economic downturn or outright collapse, a weaponized legal system, another pandemic-type health scare (real or contrived), and the lack of election integrity laws that were apparent and factored in 2020. All told, 2024 offers a level of unpredictability that makes for a challenging handicap.
Explore the most recent updates on the 2024 US presidential election odds at BetRivers!
2024 US Presidential Election
2024 US Presidential Election Odds: Donald Trump +122, Joe Biden +198, Michelle Obama +1400, Nikki Haley +2500, Gavin Newson +3700, Robert Kennedy Jr +4500, Kamala Harris +8400, All Others +20000 or Higher
As the primary season heats up, Republican Donald Trump is the favorite to win the presidency in a rematch against Democrat incumbent Joe Biden. But it is not going to be that simple in the end. Trump and Biden each have liabilities that they must overcome to make it to Labor Day (September 2, 2024), when the Presidential campaigns traditionally kick off.
Donald Trump
Since the night he was declared the loser of his 2020 reelection campaign, Trump has been scheming for a comeback win and to reclaim control of the White House. Most objective observers believe that Trump had good policies that were effective for the country. In fact, one of former Democrat President Barrack Obama’s best friends, JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon, stated as much in January 2024 at the Davos World Economic Forum. Dimon said he didn’t like how Trump said things but that Trump was basically right on all of his policies. And therein lies one of Trmp’s biggest problems.
Trump has many hurdles to overcome, starting with Democrat Party lawfare. The Democrats have weaponized the legal system and are throwing everything, both legitimate and mostly illegitimate, at Trump. This tactic is tying up Trump’s time, energy, and financial resources. Even most of Trump’s enemies say that the entire process has become an absurdity. This lawfare has also backfired. Every time Trump gets indicted, his poll numbers go up.
However, Trump has another flaw that he can control but won’t. Trump has the continuous habit of “stepping into it” even when there is no need to do so. Trump’s bold, sometimes outlandish, and controversial statements turn away voters who might otherwise agree with and support him.
Thus, voters might remember the strong Trump economy, the mixed results of the 2020 pandemic, and his ability to bring peace to much of the world. But they also remember Trump’s incendiary rhetoric and the January 6 capital riot that he is blamed for by the Democrats, correctly or not.
Joe Biden
At the onset, Joe Biden has the advantage of being the incumbent. Sitting presidents are incredibly difficult to defeat. Trump’s loss was due in large part to a pandemic that was not his fault, media bias, and lesser restrictions on voters who could mail-in ballots, which is a method open to cheating. The Democrats shamelessly harvested ballots, padding their totals, especially in large cities. They will do so again in 2024, and the Republicans have not shown that they are prepared for such shenanigans.
Biden’s weaknesses are pronounced. He can barely talk, has to be hidden for large chunks of time, has no staying power for question sessions with the media, and is suffering from a rapid mental decline. But that is not all.
The average voter feels the pinch of Biden’s weak economic record. Prices are significantly higher at the store, gas pump, and for daily living essentials than they were when Trump left office on January 20, 2021. And all the Biden-friendly “news” media in the world cannot change that fact. Price is truth, and voters feel the pinch every time they must buy something.
Just as bad has been Biden’s wide-open border policy. Millions of un-vetted illegal aliens have been deliberately allowed into the United States in wanton violation of the law. Americans are increasingly angry about the Biden administration looking the other way at illegal immigration, but he doesn’t care. And it continues.
Election Integrity
Biden’s biggest asset and Trump’s biggest weakness is the lack of election integrity in the United States. It has always been accepted that the Democrats should get about a 3-point advantage in any election because of fraud, abuse, and harvesting. In a country that is split evenly, that could prove to be the difference.
