Alabama vs. Tennessee Same Game Parlay Picks, Odds & Predictions

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Published by Mike Rose on October 18, 2024

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Enormous College Football Playoff ramifications will be in the air Saturday afternoon in Knoxville where the #7 Alabama Crimson Tide and #11 Tennessee Volunteers will each be looking to avoid seeing another “L” hung in their respective loss columns. Kalen DeBoer’s kids remain on the road having just barely got out of Columbia with their fifth win in tow after surviving the South Carolina Gamecocks 27-25 as decided 21-point road favorites. Tennessee needed overtime to dispatch of the Florida Gators in a non-covering 23-17 win as two-touchdown home chalk to bounce back from its disappointing loss at Arkansas the previous week.

The NCAAF odds for this pivotal SEC skirmish hit the board with the Crimson Tide installed 1.5-point road favorites and the Over/Under lined 56. Action reports from BetMGM Sportsbook find the CFB betting public looking the way of Alabama and the over. Due to taking in nearly 70% of the bets and money, the Tide has been jettisoned to three-point favorites amounting to the fewest points they’ve laid in this rivalry dating back to 2008. Regardless, not much of a difference compared to the preseason “Game of the Year” offering that saw Alabama hit the board 1.5-point road chalk. With these teams playing to high scorers each of the last three times they squared off, it comes with little surprise to see the over taking in a healthy 70% of tickets and 80+ percent of the handle forcing a slight market correction to 56.5.

Reduced juice betting is one of the best ways for any sports bettor to save money and far too many people don’t take advantage of it. If you are not playing at a sportsbook that offers reduced juice betting then you are simply giving away money.

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Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Tennessee Volunteers CFB Same Game Parlay:

I knew heading into the year Alabama would look nothing like it did the previous 17 years Nick Saban overlooked the program’s day-to-day. Not because the talent doesn’t reside in Tuscaloosa, and certainly not because I didn’t think DeBoer could handle the gig. It had everything to do with the changing of the guard. Saban’s calming presence and quiet cockiness was no longer roaming the sideline. He was and still is a respected figurehead that epitomizes and emphasizes the way the game could, and should, be played. Would the result in Nashville had played out differently if he was still calling the shots—inarguably yes, considering he never once lost to the Vanderbilt Commodores as head coach of the Alabama Crimson Tide.

My biggest gripe with the Tide to this point is that the offense relies on the big play way too much to put points on the board. It has a viable rushing attack at its disposal with Jalen Milroe and the battery of Jam Miller and Justice Haynes in the backfield. Yet, the unit only ranks No. 51 overall and averages 35.5 rushing attempts per game (#70). For an offense giving the ball away an average of 1.5 times per game (#81) and Milroe throwing all his interceptions since SEC play kicked off, you’d think Bama would choose to utilize his legs a bit more than his arm considering how bad the defense has been to this point of the CFB betting season.

I’d be willing to wager a large sum of money that Bama wouldn’t be ranked 54^th overall and 42^nd in scoring defense had Saban not hung up his whistle. The stop unit simply hasn’t been able to get off the field since SEC play began. While ranked 12^th overall in allowing a 30.6 opponent third down conversion percentage, it jumps all the way up to 45.8% over the last three weeks which coincides directly with the SEC opener against Georgia. While Tennessee’s offense has gone missing in action since the Oklahoma game, I can’t help but think this is the spot Nico Iamaleava finally introduces himself to the conference and goes off for a big number against the Crimson Tide who’ve served up nearly 400 yards of combined offense to the Gamecocks and Commodores over the last two weeks. Not to mention the 439 passing yards and 3 TD it served up to Carson Beck in the SEC opener!

That being said, Tennessee’s offense has all but disappeared over the last two weeks with it failing to put a single point on the board in the first half against both Arkansas and Florida before going on to split both games. However, CFB bettors have already seen what Josh Heupel’s unit is capable of after hanging some truly impressive numbers on the board at the outset of the season. So, will this be the breakthrough game for the Tide’s defense, or will Dylan Sampson and Co. finally put an end to the scoring drought?

I lean to the latter. Along with having the balanced attack to drive Bama mad, the Crimson Tide’s pass defense has done nothing but regress since the schedule strength got tougher. Though the Vols just lost leading tackler Keenan Pili for the remainder of the season, I have more faith in its defense to come up with the stops when needed with it proving to be the more consistent of the two teams on that side of the ball all season. While UGA is nowhere near as good as initially predicted to be, Alabama was extremely lucky to get out of that bizarre game with the dub. It catches up to them in this one with the Vols capping off time consuming drives with points, and the defense forcing the turnovers needed for Tennessee to hold serve against the Tide in Neyland Stadium a second straight time.