Best NFL Week 1 Betting Systems

Week 1 of the NFL season is here and that means a lot of action for bettors and for online sportsbooks. Week 1 NFL action also means there are some specific NFL betting systems to look at. These systems only apply to the first week of the NFL season and some of them have very good winning percentages. I’ll take a look at the top two NFL betting systems for Week 1 that have ATS percentages of more than 75%. That will give us three games to consider. Let’s look at NFL Week 1 betting systems plays.

Check out the latest NFL betting odds at Prime Sports.

Go Against Home Teams in Non-Conference Games with Small Pointspreads

Home teams playing non-conference games that are in the range of +3 to -3 in Week 1 have been awful straight up and against the spread in Week 1 of the NFL season in the last nine years. They have gone just 5-15 SU and 3-16-1 ATS. If you had gone against those teams, you would have had a winning percentage of 84% against the spread.  It is hard to top that. There are two games to look at as we go against Atlanta and against Cleveland.

Pittsburgh Steelers +3 at Atlanta Falcons

I am not a fan of Russell Wilson so this is going to be a tough one, but the Falcons have a new quarterback in Kirk Cousins who didn’t play at all in the preseason. The expectations are sky high for Atlanta this season, but since when has Dan Quinn won anything?  Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin might have a short leash on Wilson and Justin Fields looked very good in the preseason. We’ll take the Steelers +3.

Dallas Cowboys +2.5 at Cleveland Browns

The Browns are paying a ton of money to Deshaun Watson and the pressure is on Watson to deliver this season. The Cowboys have a lot of pressure on them as well but Dallas also has a lot of talent. The Cowboys are not going to be underdogs that often this season, but that is the case in Week 1. I don’t know that I trust Watson and Cleveland anyway, and this system says to take the points so that is what we will do in this contest.

Divisional Home Dogs

One of the most reliable systems for Week 1 NFL games is simply to take divisional home underdogs. They have gone 18-9-2 straight up and a very profitable 23-6 ATS since 2009. That is a lot of data to consider so this is not just some fluke NFL betting system. There is only one game that fits into that category this season and it has the Indianapolis Colts getting points at home against Houston.

Indianapolis Colts +2.5 vs. Houston Texans

There are only three divisional games in Week 1 and this one fits into the system with the Colts getting points at home. The Texans are one of the most popular teams heading into the 2024 NFL season and it is hard to argue, as they have one of the most exciting young quarterbacks in CJ Stroud and a defense that is getting better. Houston was a major surprise last season but they won’t go under the radar this season. The Colts have a young quarterback of their own in Anthony Richardson and I think Shane Steichen did an outstanding job last season with Indianapolis.  This is also a revenge game for the Colts, as they were kept out of the playoffs last season by the Texans. One thing we know about NFL betting is that the public falls in love with certain teams and certain games every year. There is no question that the Texans are going to be a popular team with bettors this season. I guess it should not be surprising that Houston is laying points on the road in this game. I don’t think it will be easy for the Texans in this opener and it should be a close game that the Colts have a chance to win outright. We’ll take the Colts in this contest.

Check out the latest NFL betting odds at Prime Sports.