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While commercial Alberta sports betting likely will not launch until next year, projections for the market show it could see significant action. At last month’s Canadian Gaming Summit, Alberta sports betting was a major focus as it was confirmed the province will follow a similar commercial online gambling model to Ontario. Both at the conference and in the ensuing weeks, stakeholders and analysts have been bullish on the province’s potential.
“Per capita, Alberta punches above its weight,” Troy Ross, president at TPM Public Affairs, said during the CGS. “It if follows a similar model, it will have a similar result, surpassing, at least, conservatively, C$100 million in new taxes.” SVP of American regulatory affairs and responsible gambling at Entain, Martin Lycka, said that Ontario is the “platinum standard of iGaming regulation.”
JMP Securities predicted in a note to clients that by the third year, the internet gaming sector in Alberta could generate more than $700 million in revenue. It would then rank as the eighth-largest online gaming market in North America. Based on JMP’s calculations, almost $200 million of that would come from sports betting. Another company projects that the revenue at maturity might approach $900 million. In its second full year of operation, Ontario recorded operator revenue of $1.5 billion. There are about 15 million people living in Ontario and about 4.4 million people living in Alberta.
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Since the Canadian provinces are not brand-new markets, integrating gray market players into the legal system is necessary to make the shift to a regulated commercial sector. Therefore, the tax rates must be appealing to those businesses. “We are not dealing with new markets,” said Amanda Brewer, senior executive at the Canadian Gaming Association at the conference. “We didn’t have prohibitions, so if you’re trying to get entrenched operators to come into compliance, the tax rate needs to be attractive, nothing north of 20%.”
Regulators in Ontario approved a protracted transition period following its start in April 2022. They were happy with the outcomes by the time they closed the door to gray market operators in October 2022. That being said, not all operators will go to the legal market, even with a fair tax rate. “I don’t know an open market in the world that eliminated the black market,” HLT Advisory Managing Director Rob Scarpelli said to the media,
One of the things that many at the CGS criticized about Ontario was its dearth of involvement with land-based casinos. Stakeholders think that by securing the rights to its 29 land-based casinos early on, Alberta could contribute to improving its early performance. “Alberta has a freer and open attitude to let those casinos do what they need to do to take advantage of the opportunity,” Brewer said. Check out the latest sports betting odds at BetMGM.
