Canelo Alvarez vs. Jermell Charlo Picks, Predictions, and Odds

Four-division world champion Canelo Alvarez will step into the ring for the second time this year when he defends his undisputed super middleweight championship against Jermell Charlo. This figures to be the toughest fight for Canelo since he was pummeled by Dmitry Bivol last May, as Charlo is currently the undisputed light middleweight champion. However, the challenger will be at a disadvantage as Charlo is moving up two weight classes in order to cash in on a big payday against Canelo.

There is already plenty of mid-week buzz for the super middleweight title fight between Canelo Alvarez (59-2-2 with 39 knockouts) and Jermell Charlo (35-1-1 with 19 knockouts). Alvarez is a sizeable favorite by the boxing betting odds as this is the weight he fights at most often now, and Charlo is used to fighting as a light middleweight. These two will face off at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, on Saturday, September 30. The bout will be shown on ShowTime PPV with the card slated to get underway at 8 p.m. ET.

Boxing Betting Odds at Caesars Sportsbook

Canelo Alvarez -425
Jermell Charlo +335
Over/Under 10.5 Rounds

Many considered Canelo Alvarez to be the best active fighter in boxing prior to his convincing loss to Dmitry Bivol 16 months ago. Alvarez lost a unanimous decision that was more lopsided than the judges’ scorecards indicated, and he has actively done damage control since the defeat.

Recently, Alvarez tried to excuse the loss by claiming, “I wasn’t 100% physically speaking, my hand wasn’t 100%, I couldn’t train 100%. A week before the fight, I suffered a rib injury during training. I shouldn’t have fought.” Canelo went on to claim that he was better than Bivol despite what we all saw in that fight, leading to a lot of eye rolls from boxing fans.

There’s no doubt that Canelo is one of the top fighters in the sport and arguably the biggest draw, and he has consistently gotten the benefit of the doubt from the judges. Alvarez is 2-0-1 against Gennady Golovkin, but many observers felt that he lost each of the first two fights before finally putting away a past his prime GGG last year. Canelo followed that up with an easy victory over a clearly outmatched John Ryder on Cinco de Mayo weekend, and Charlo represents the toughest test for Alvarez since his loss.

Jermell Charlo has been a light middleweight champion for most of the last seven years. It took him nearly a decade of fighting at a professional level before he received his title shot, and he grabbed the WBC light middleweight championship with an eighth round TKO win over John Jackson. Charlo successfully defended the title with easy knockouts of Charles Hatley and Erickson Lubin, but he had to hold on in order to secure a majority decision win over Austin Trout. That foreshadowed a loss to Tony Harrison by unanimous decision, yet that might have been the motivation that Charlo needed in order to improve as a fighter.

Since that loss to Harrison, Charlo has been on a roll. He knocked Jorge Cota out in the third round to set up a rematch with Harrison, and then he scored an 11^th round knockout to avenge his loss to Harrison. Charlo also scored an eighth round knockout of Jeison Rosario to unify the light middleweight division three years ago, but he has only entered the ring twice since that point. He had to settle for a draw against Brian Castano before knocking him out in the rematch.

At first glance, Canelo Alvarez looks to be the play due to his seasoning, expertise, and familiarity at super middleweight. However, Canelo is reaching the Floyd Mayweather stage of his career. Charlo has a sizeable height and reach advantage even though he fights at light middleweight, and that could be tough for the champion to manage. He tends to get a little boost from the judges, but I’m going to take the underdog Charlo at a very nice price according to the boxing betting line.

Play: Jermell Charlo to Win