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It’s hard to imagine the Alabama Crimson Tide not winning at least 10 games since that’s been a benchmark for the program under Nick Saban. However, there are some concerns surrounding the Tide following the retirement of the coach who compiled the highest winning percentage in program history, yep, even higher than that of legendary Paul “Bear” Bryant. Bama went 11-1 last regular season and upset Georgia in the SEC Championship for another shot at a national title. It wasn’t to be, though, with an overtime loss to eventual champ Michigan in the CFP Semifinals. Not only did Alabama lose its head coach dozens of players also left the program either through the transfer portal or to the NFL leaving new coach Kalen DeBoer with plenty to do. As a result the team’s projected win total at BetMGM opened at 9.5.
Regular Season Wins for the Alabama Crimson Tide
Over 9.5 ( +110 )
Under 9.5 ( -135 )
Not far removed from a head coaching stint at the University of Sioux Falls, DeBoer takes over one of the most storied programs in the annals of college football. Starting with his stint in South Dakota in 2005, DeBoer earned his way into the SEC ranks by producing at least nine wins and a winning record in all eight of his full seasons at the helm while posting a career winning percentage of .897. Last year he led the undefeated Washington Huskies to the CFP championship before losing to Michigan.
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Roster
Don’t feel sorry for DeBoer and the Tide. Programs with national championship aspirations every year don’t rebuild they simply reload by attracting the best talent in the country. The retirement of Saban, who won six national championships during his time in Tuscaloosa, will hog the headlines and become even more of a topic if the Tide struggle out of the gate. However, I don’t see that being an issue. DeBoer is one of the sharpest coaches out there and has won at every stop, so Alabama shouldn’t be any different.
Directing one of the top offenses in the country at Washington last season should help DeBoer in his relationship with incumbent Jalen Milroe. A dynamic dual threat, Milroe threw for 2,834 yards and 23 touchdowns with an additional 531 yards and 12 TDs on the ground as the Tide averaged 34 points. Justice Haynes got a taste of life in the SEC last year rushing for 168 yards on 25 carries in his freshman campaign. He’s next in line to become the efficient ball carrier that has balanced the offensive attack.
There were some concerns about the QB position entering last season, but those were answered by the play of Milroe. With so much talent it’s hard to find any weaknesses. The one area that stands out the most is an inexperienced group of receivers. Blue chip recruit Ryan Williams could solve the problem as could Washington transfer Germie Bernard.
As the offense learns a new system under a new coach and a number of first-time players, the Tide will rely on a defense that was rock solid every year under the old regime. Alabama ranked among the top 20 in total defense and scoring defense last year and will have to replace some key players. But they return solid pieces at every level with linebackers Deontae Lawson and Jihaad Campbell anchoring the middle.
Every school has to deal with players coming and going. What makes the Tide’s season more unpredictable is that a new coach and two new coordinators must shape and mold their roster to the expectations of the fan base. While it’s no easy task at least DeBoer has four- and five-star recruits waiting to take over.
Schedule
The SEC is always a grind and the Tide has some huge matchups on the slate. They go on the road to face Tennessee, LSU and Oklahoma while playing host to Georgia, Missouri and Auburn. At least the non-conference slate doesn’t have a Texas with the biggest threat being Wisconsin in Week 3. The Badgers aren’t as formidable as they’ve been, though.
Prediction
Given the turnover in personnel and a new coaching staff it would be easy to dismiss Alabama and take the UNDER. However, DeBoer is a great hire and he will mold the offense into a dangerous unit. Milroe is the most experienced player on that side of the ball and being the team leader is a plus for the new staff. The season opens with a body bag game against Western Kentucky to get the jitters out of the way and the Tide cruise. They’ll likely have a hiccup against Georgia, LSU or Oklahoma, but losing two games is enough of a cushion making the OVER a CFB best bet.
