CFB Futures – 2024 Auburn Tigers Win Total Odds

The Auburn Tigers weren’t that far away from being an 8-win or more team in 2023. Two of their setbacks were by seven points to Georgia and by a field goal to Alabama. They did win most of the games they were expected to going 5-1 when playing as a favorite on the CFB betting line, but the one loss put a damper on the first season under Hugh Freeze and prevented the Tigers from cashing the OVER on their win total. In their penultimate regular season game Auburn was ambushed by New Mexico State losing 31-10 as a 25-point favorite. The Tigers lost the finale, 27-24, on a late Alabama touchdown ending the regular season at 6-6. Expectations have increased slightly with Auburn having a 2024 projected win total of 7.5 at BetMGM.

Regular Season Wins for the Auburn Tigers

Over 7.5 ( +125 )

Under 7.5 ( -150 )

In three post-Gus Malzahn seasons the Tigers failed to finish a season with a winning record. Relieved of his duties after a winning record in all eight of his seasons, the former coach is having a good laugh from his spot as HC of Central Florida. In nine of 10 seasons as a head coach prior to his arrival at Auburn, Freeze posted a winning record and turned lower level Liberty into a powerhouse winning nearly 70 percent of his games in four years. The SEC is different but Freeze has experience running the Ole Miss program and averaged nearly eight wins during his five seasons.

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Roster

Last season was a huge disappointment for Freeze and the Tigers. Known as an offensive guru during his previous coaching stints, the Tigers were among the worst in the SEC last season prompting Freeze to take a more active role in the offense this year. In 2023 Auburn had the worst passing offense averaging just 162.2 yards. They also ranked 11th in scoring (26.2) and 10th in total offense (352.2). It was an alarming development considering they had an experienced QB in Payton Thorne. 

For the offense to take the next step Thorne, or somebody else, has to step up. The Tigers added a number of offensive skill players to hopefully improve the dismal 2023 numbers led by top wide receiver recruits Cam Coleman and Perry Thompson. The position also got depth with the addition of several transfers. The line is expected to be a team strength leaving no excuses for Thorne. However, there isn’t a backup ready to take over the starting job so the Tigers will have to roll with they got for at least the first few games. 

The passing attack doesn’t need a complete 180 with a devastating ground game to lean on. Leading rusher Jarquez Hunter is back after going for 909 yards with seven touchdowns a season ago. He’s joined by Damari Alston and Jeremiah Cobb, who combined to average more than 5.0 yards per carry. A slightly improved passing attack will not only boost the ground game but also the unit as a whole.

The work of the defense mirrored that of the team in 2023. The group was middle of the road in the SEC ranking eighth in average yards allowed and seventh in scoring. It was good enough to win games the Tigers should’ve won but not good enough to pull off an upset or two, though they came close. Once again the unit should be solid if not better statistically. 

New coordinator D.J. Durkin had success in the same role previously at Michigan and Texas AM and the Tigers have the athletes and depth to be markedly better with high-end potential at all three levels. However, potential is great on paper and needs to transfer to the field.

Schedule

The hope is that the Tigers can pull off one of those near upsets from a season ago while not losing as a massive favorite. They should be better in Year 2 of Freeze to beat their four non-conference foes, but their conference matchups are going to be tough. They travel to Georgia, Mizzou, Kentucky and Alabama and host Texas AM and Oklahoma. A loss to either Arkansas or Vandy in the other home SEC tilts puts the UNDER in a good position.

Prediction

I’d like to think Auburn is an 8-win team but I can’t trust Thorne as their QB and that’s a big hurdle to overcome. His inability as a downfield threat in the passing game leaves them one-dimensional and the better teams can exploit that. If by some chance Thorne overcomes his deficiencies the Tigers are a much better squad, but that’s a big if leaving seven wins as the likely ceiling.