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Most of the so-called experts have the 2024 Boise State Broncos as the top Group of Five team and the one getting an invite to the expanded College Football Playoff. But the Broncos must first get through the rugged Mountain West Conference and a demanding schedule that features games against former Pac-12 members Oregon, Oregon State and Washington State. A mid-season coaching change sparked a Broncos’ run that put them in the MWC championship. Spencer Danielson had the interim tag removed after leading the Broncos to three straight wins, including a 44-20 decision over UNLV for the conference title. With an abundance of experienced next-level talent, Boise State opened with a projected win total of 9.5 at BetMGM.
Regular Season Wins for the Boise State Broncos
Over 9.5 ( +110 )
Under 9.5 ( -135 )
The Broncos were 5-5 when the decision was made to fire Andy Avalos and make Danielson the interim. Expectations are high in Boise and when the squad doesn’t meet them changes are made. Danielson got the most out of a group that failed his predecessor and plenty of firepower returns, which is a testament to Danielson and his ability to lead. Danielson won his first three games with the offense averaging nearly 39 points. They hammered UNLV in Vegas to win the MWC before a loss to UCLA in the LA Bowl where several starters didn’t play.
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Roster
The Broncos return a number of players on both sides of the football making them a solid pick as the best G5 team. An offense that averaged the second-most yards (436.1) and third-most points (32.1) in the Mountain West last season may have gotten stronger with the addition of transfer QB Malachi Nelson, The highly-touted USC recruit played sparingly last season prompting a move, and the Broncos are the beneficiary. There’s no way this group should be worse statistically than it was in 2023 and with skill-position prospects they ought to be much better.
Nelson doesn’t run like his predecessor, Taylen Green, who bolted for Arkansas, but he is a better pocket QB with big-play ability, and he won’t need to handle the ball with Ashton Jeanty in the backfield. Keeping Jeanty was a coup for the coaching staff, especially offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter, who utilized the MWC Player of the Year in all situations. Jeanty averaged 112.3 rushing yards and led the nation in yards from scrimmage while totaling 19 touchdowns. And he operates behind an offensive line that returns four starters.
If there is a weakness on offense it’s the group of wide receivers, which thinned upon the transfer of Eric McAlister. If former five-star recruit Chris Marshall can stay out of trouble the group is much better with several promising youngsters looking to make their mark.
With eight starters expected back the defense should be better and more consistent than it was a season ago. They ranked fifth in the MW in total defense while giving up the fourth-fewest points. It’s a bonus having one devastating pass rusher and the Broncos have a pair that can wreak havoc on opposing QBs. Ahmed Hassanein recorded 12.5 sacks last season, second-most in the MWC. On the other edge is Jayden Virgin-Morgan, a budding star.
Too many times the secondary got beat and as a result the Broncos were just 3-6 when opponents completed better than 55 percent of their passes. Jeremiah Erby, who started at Cal last year, is in to defend one corner spot with A’Marion McCoy on the other side. The defensive backfield has plenty of experience and should be more consistent at shutting down opponents with a pass rush that’s expected to be elite.
Schedule
If the Broncos are as good as most expect them to be, they should roll through a MWC schedule that’s minus consensus No. 2 team Fresno State. The scheduling agreement between the MW and Pac-2 has the Broncos playing both Oregon State and Washington State, but the big game is in Week 2 at Oregon. It’s not a game the Broncos have to win and more than likely they won’t leaving little margin for error the rest of the season.
Prediction
Eight of the 12 teams in the MW will have a new QB in 2024, including Boise State. But the Broncos have what could be the best of the bunch added to an already potent roster. This team isn’t as good as the Chris Peterson and Bryan Harsin squads from several years ago, but they are inching up on them. BSU has a roster many Power 5 teams would be envious of and they should roll through their schedule. There is little margin for error with an expected loss to Oregon, but this squad is loaded and should finish the regular season with at least 10 wins.
