CFB Futures – 2024 Florida State Seminoles Win Total Odds

I don’t think how the 2023 season ended will soon be forgotten in Tallahassee. If running the table and winning the ACC Championship wasn’t enough to get the Florida State Seminoles a spot in the College Football Playoff I’m not sure what more needs to be done. Football is a team game so it shouldn’t have mattered that QB Jordan Travis was injured late in the season. The Noles still deserved a shot. So carrying a massive chip on their shoulder and with more desire to stick it to the committee, FSU is the preseason favorite to again win the ACC and this time they should get in thanks to the expanded playoff format. The Noles surpassed last season’s win total and once again oddsmakers at BetMGM have them at 9.5 games, which could be difficult with a number of stars departed.

Regular Season Wins for the Florida State Seminoles

Over 9.5 ( -110 )

Under 9.5 ( -110 )

The Noles improved their win total every year under Mike Norvell, who returned the program to past glory winning 10 games in 2022. They were even better last year winning all 12 regular season games and the ACC Championship, 16-6, over Louisville when the defense was lights out. Another improvement in the overall win category would mean FSU is playing for and possibly winning the CFP title game.

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Roster

The transfer portal can help teams fill holes and the Noles have plenty of spots available on both sides of the football. With Travis directing the show last year FSU had a potent offense leading the ACC in scoring with 34.6 points per game. However, when Travis was injured in the penultimate regular season game the offense regressed. And his injury was the excuse the committee gave for keeping the Seminoles out of the playoff. Then Tate Rodemaker transferred before the bowl game against Georgia leaving a gaping hole at the most important position.

To fill the gap Norvell lured former star Clemson recruit D.J. Uiagalelei, who spent last season at Oregon State where he threw for 2,638 yards and 21 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Over his last two seasons Uiagalelei has 43 TD passes and 14 picks. However, he has a career completion percentage under 60, but his experience is something that can’t be overlooked. While the QB situation appears in capable hands, the Noles also have to replace their leading rusher and top two receivers from a season ago. 

The offensive line should be a strength with plenty of beef to pave the way for a group of inexperienced but capable running backs. Second leading rusher Lawrence Toafili, who had 463 yards and averaged 6.7 yards per tote, will get a bulk of the work.

Just how good was FSU defensively in 2023? With a number of starters sitting out the bowl game loss to Georgia, the Noles were shredded for 673 yards and 63 points yet they still surrendered fewer than 20 points a game and were 11th nationally against the pass for the entire season. There are some holes to fill but overall the group is strong and should dominate teams like last season. Pass defense will help in a number of wins. Three next-level players roam the secondary with Fentrell Cypress a corner most teams will avoid.

Schedule

Other than their tilt with Clemson, there isn’t an ACC squad that FSU shouldn’t beat, and they get the Tigers at home. FSU’s in-state matchups with Miami and Florida State are for bragging rights making those games unpredictable, but there’s a good chance the Noles could be without a loss heading into their Nov. 9 contest at Notre Dame. With seven home games and the ACC not having dominant teams, the Noles have a favorable route to cash the OVER on their win total CFB futures bet.

Prediction

Before we go cash the OVER on this bet keep in mind FSU’s road to perfection last year came with some anxious moments. They barely got by BC as a 27.5-point favorite and probably should’ve lost to a down Clemson squad. Six of their wins were against teams that finished with a losing record. There is likely to be some regression and there are several more than capable teams of pulling off an upset. While the core of the team is solid, many new faces at key positions will lead to a few hiccups and there is little margin for error.

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