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Head coach Matt Campbell has built a culture of winning around the Iowa State Cyclones with six successful campaigns in the last seven years, which is saying something since ISU lost more games than it won in 10 of the previous 11 seasons and remains the only Power program yet to have a double-digit win season. After a rough start to 2023 the Cyclones rallied to win seven regular season games and with a plethora of returning starters the bar has been raised in Ames. Along with it their win total at BetMGM has also spiked to 7.5. A history of losing and bad football stands in the way of ISU winning eight games but there are pieces in place for a surprise run in the rearranged Big 12 Conference.
Regular Season Wins for the Iowa State Cyclones
Over 7.5 ( -120 )
Under 7.5 ( +100 )
Is it really a surprise if college football pundits claim you can be a surprise? The Cyclones lost three of their first five games in 2023, including a woeful 10-7 setback to the Ohio Bobcats where they were a CFB point spread favorite. They also lost by 30 at Oklahoma. ISU finished the year winning five of its last seven games with a stunning 42-35 upset at Kansas State in the regular season finale. We saw a group of young players mature over the course of the season which is the reason for so much optimism heading into the 2024 season.
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Roster
For Iowa State to take the next step second-year starting quarterback Rocco Becht needs to continue is ascent. The offense sputtered in early season losses to Iowa and Ohio scoring a combined 20 points. The group settled down after that reaching the 20-point mark in nine of its last 10 contests, including the bowl game with Memphis. The only time the Cyclones didn’t score at least 20 points was in a loss to Texas against the Big 12’s No. 1 defense.
Becht finished the season throwing for 446 yards and three TDs in the Liberty Bowl loss to Memphis and had 10 TD passes and only one interception over the last four games with 1,202 passing yards in that span. We could see a vertical game from the Cyclones with their leading receivers back. Jaylin Noel had 66 receptions for 820 yards and a team high seven TDs while Jayden Higgins caught 53 balls averaging 18.5 yards and six scores. No other player had more than 28 catches.
To help balance the attack leading rusher Abu Sama is back after averaging 7.3 yards per carry. Sama also excelled in the latter part of the season rushing for 544 yards in the final six games. He was the catalyst in the upset of K-State rushing for 276 yards and three TDs in the 42-35 win. Two weeks before that Sama scampered for 110 yards and two TDs in a 45-13 win at BYU. Those were the only games ISU surpassed the 40-point mark.
Like their mates on the other side of the football, ISU’s defense returns a number of starters from a group that ranked second in the Big 12 in total defense and third in points allowed. Under coordinator Jon Heacock the Cyclones have always been a tenacious group and with talent at all three levels they should again be near the top of the Big 12. If they can get to the opposing quarterback with more consistency the group could be nasty. J.R. Singleton and Domonique Orange are solid run-stoppers and former walk-on Caleb Bacon leads a group of ball-hawking linebackers.
Schedule
The Big 12 slate eases up considerably with Texas and OU off to the SEC. The Cyclones lost both games last year and had difficulty beating those teams in the past, but so have plenty of others. They do have all the recent AAC additions in Cincinnati, UCF and Houston, which isn’t bad since they all had a losing record a season ago, as did Baylor. However, I don’t think ISU is in the category right now where those games are likely wins. The season closes with a flourish and the outcome of this CFB futures bet hanging in the balance. ISU plays Kansas and Utah sandwiched around a home game with Cincy then closes the season at home against K-State.
Prediction
The Cyclones have the makings of a real good team with experienced talent at nearly every position. However, there isn’t a lot of depth and key injuries could throw them off the rails quickly. The schedule is manageable but they’ve won eight regular season games just twice since 2001. The good news is that those two seasons have been in the last six years under Campbell and I like their chances of getting their again with a favorable schedule making the OVER a CFB best bet.
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