CFB Futures – 2024 Liberty Flames Win Total Odds

A regular season with 10 wins is damned impressive and that’s probably the basement for the 2024 Liberty Flames. In just their sixth season as a FBS member the Flames accomplished something most non-power programs only dream about. Last year they ran the table, beat New Mexico State in the CUSA Championship and earned the Group of Five invite to the New Year’s Six, where they were drubbed by Oregon. That didn’t lessen what the team accomplished but only inspired them to strive for more. With their win total at BetMGM set at 10.5 there’s little margin for error, but the conference isn’t exactly a juggernaut and the Flames are clearly the class of it.

Regular Season Wins for the Liberty Flames

Over 10.5 ( -135 )

Under 10.5 ( +115 )

Hugh Freeze built a dynasty at the Virginia school winning 34 games in four seasons. So there was some concern when he bolted for the SEC taking the gig at Auburn for the 2023 campaign. That foundation of success helped bring in a more than capable replacement in Jamey Chadwell, who some had as a possible Auburn hire before the school’s final decision. Chadwell directed Coastal Carolina for five seasons winning 11 games just three years after the program transitioned to the FBS level and boasted a 31-6 record in his last three seasons with the Chanticleers. So, it wasn’t a surprise that the Flames were good in Chadwell’s first year.

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Roster

What can Chadwell and the Flames do for an encore. They were perfect in CUSA play winning the conference title in their first year. The offense was explosive averaging nearly 500 yards and 38.3 points to rank among the top 10 nationally while leading the country in rushing. And they were the top Group of Five team earning a showdown with Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl. The last game didn’t go so well but it was an experience for a number of returning players making the Flames a threat to earn a spot in the College Football Playoff as the best non-power conference team.

Liberty was electrifying on offense last season led by Kaidon Salter. You could say Chadwell scored a coup bringing his QB and leading rusher Quinton Cooley back after both flirted with the transfer portal. To some degree that shows how much the top players in the program respect the coach and his vision. Salter didn’t throw the football a lot because he didn’t have to. But when he did he was efficient with 2,876 yards and 32 TDs with only six interceptions in 290 attempts. 

The strength of the offense was the run game and that should be another golden area. The ultimate dual threat, Salter rushed for 1,089 yards and 12 scores, second on the team to only Cooley, who ranked seventh in the FBS with 1,401 yards and 16 TDs. Billy Lucas was one of two other players to amass more than 550 rushing yards. Liberty was the only FBS squad to rush for more than 4,000 yards and averaged nearly 6.2 yards per pop.

Playing defense at Liberty means you’re a spectator most of the time. The Flames possessed the football for more than 33 minutes on average and converted half of their third down chances tying them for fourth in the FBS. The group wasn’t as strong as their mates on the other side but they were good enough to rank in the top 3 in the conference in points and yards allowed. There will be turnover in the secondary among a group that led college football with 21 interceptions. The stats were skewed slightly because opponents had to throw the football to keep or try to catch up. As a result the Flames ranked 119th nationally against the pass.

Schedule

Thanks to a soft schedule there is a clear path to another CUSA title and eventually the expanded CFP. The conference slate of games isn’t overly impressive making the Week 5 matchup at Appalachian State the biggest test on the slate. Being the big dog in the conference makes you a mark every week and there’s probably at least one loss somewhere. It could be App State, or the Week 11 tilt at Middle Tennessee. Conference games against Jacksonville State and Western Kentucky are at home giving the Flames a boost. Outside of possibly the App State game there isn’t one matchup on the schedule where the Flames won’t be the CFB betting line favorite.

Prediction

The odds favor the Flames winning 11 games and they are set up nicely for a strong run. The key pieces on offense are back and the defense upgraded through the transfer portal. The hype is there for the Flames with this article evidence. Only the top teams in college football get a write up and Liberty made the cut. And you can’t discount what a trip to the Fiesta Bowl meant for the program.

Check out the latest college football odds at BetMGM