CFB Futures – 2024 Louisville Cardinals Win Total Odds

Losing their final three games didn’t dampen what first year coach Jeff Brohm accomplished with the Louisville Cardinals in 2023. At 10-1 heading into their regular season finale, the Cards already had the program’s first double-digit win season in a decade and qualified for their first ACC Championship Game. However, a loss to Florida State for the conference title and a 14-point setback to USC in the Holiday Bowl left a sour taste in everybody’s mouth. The transfer portal was an asset last year and the Cards hit it hard again landing a potential star in QB Tyler Shough to run the offense Expectations are tempered following the loss of a number of key players with the projected win total at BetMGM set at 8.

Regular Season Wins for the Louisville Cardinals

Over 8 ( -110 )

Under 8 ( -110 )

Louisville finally lured Brohm home with an offer he couldn’t refuse. A star quarterback at the school during his playing days Brohm put together back-to-back winning seasons at Purdue before making the move. Prior to his stint in the Big Ten, Brohm had consecutive double-digit win seasons at Western Kentucky. Before last season the Cards had compiled 10 or more wins in a season just six times since 1962 doing it consecutively one time in 2012 and 2013. Since then and before that, too, they were a mediocre program.

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Roster

Last year was a good one for Louisville, but it didn’t come without some stunning moments. They lost to Kentucky for the fifth straight time and also fell to Florida State in the ACC title game with the Noles using a third-string QB. However, that game was more about what the Cards didn’t do offensively against one of the best defenses in the conference. Then there was the bowl game loss when Louisville surrendered a USC bowl record six TD passes to Miller Moss, who made his first career start with Caleb Williams opting out.

It’s going to be a new-look squad in 2024 with a number of transfers filling vital roles. The biggest and most important is at QB where Tyler Shough takes over for 2023 transfer Jack Plummer. The offense was good last year finishing fourth in the ACC with an average of 415.4 yards. They also had the fifth best rushing attack and passing game while averaging 30.7 points. You expect with a former QB at the helm that the offense would be good.

Shough is an upgrade at the position if he’s able to stay healthy. And that’s a big IF since he missed parts of the last three seasons at Texas Tech due to injuries. In 2021 he sustained a broken collarbone and in 2022 a shoulder injury shelved him. A broken fibula put an end to his 2023 campaign. Over his collegiate career Shough has thrown for 4,625 yards and 36 TDs while adding 714 yards and 10 scores on the ground. There are also new faces at receiver and running back as well as on the line.

The Cards were good in several key defensive categories last year allowing them to have success. They were the best in the country in the red zone allowing points on just 67.7 percent of opponent’s visits. They were also the best in the ACC against the run while placing 21st nationally in total defense. Having Ashton Gillotte back is a big deal. He led the ACC and was eighth nationally with 11 sacks and also contributed 14.5 TFLs. If coordinator Ron English is right the Cards should be tough to throw on. Three transfers join returnee Quincy Riley to form what English says is the best group he’s had in a long time.

Schedule

The good news is that Florida State, North Carolina and NC State aren’t on the conference slate. The Cards also have what figure to be easy games against Austin Peay and Jacksonville State to start the year and get a whole slew of new players time go come together. What might be difficult to overcome is the closing stretch where four of their final five games are on the road, including a Week 10 matchup with Clemson. The only home contest in that stretch is Week 12 against Pitt, who beat the Cards last season. The finale is against Kentucky, who they haven’t beaten since 2017.

Prediction

A return trip to the ACC Championship game is a big even though the Cards appear to be trending upward. Massive amounts of roster turnover and an injury-prone QB are tough obstacles. And let’s not forget how close the Cards came to giving away a few games. Five wins were by a converted TD or less and could have gone either way. Louisville won them, which is part of growing up, but some of them didn’t need to be that close. I think eight wins is the ceiling for this group.

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