CFB Futures – 2024 LSU Tigers Win Total Odds

Back to back 10-win seasons put the LSU Tigers squarely in the picture for a berth in the expanded College Football Playoff. However, they will have to work around the loss of Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels, who directed the most prolific offense in college football last season. The Tigers are expected to be contending for a national championship every year with the kind of talent attracted to the school and Brian Kelly has turned the program around after the Tigers went 11-12 in two seasons prior to his arrival. Nine regular season wins in each of the past two seasons is nice, but this is LSU and reaching that number again might not be enough for the CFP and it will go below the projected win total of 9.5 set at BetMGM.

Regular Season Wins for the LSU Tigers

Over 9.5 ( +140 )

Under 9.5 ( -165 )

The Tigers experienced some mediocre campaigns after their undefeated championship season in 2019 turning to Brian Kelly to get the program back to where folks in Baton Rouge think it belongs. Kelly knows the pressure of winning and did a marvelous job at Notre Dame becoming the program’s all-time leader in victories. Three years into his tenure at LSU the team is expected to get over the hump of nine regular season wins. However, changes at key positions need to be addressed as does a defense that last year let opponents run wild. If those areas are adequately fixed is a 10-win team.

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Roster

One thing about Kelly over his career is that his offenses are always efficient and score a lot of points. It doesn’t seem to matter who the coordinator or players are they just get the job done. And no one got it done better than LSU last year. The Tigers led the nation in total offense averaging 543.5 yards and they averaged the most points with 45.5. They will have a new play-caller and a new QB after Daniels won the Heisman and was drafted into the NFL.

Replacing what Daniels did won’t be easy. The Arizona State transfer was sparkling last year completing better than 72 percent of his throws for 3,812 yards with 40 touchdowns and only four interceptions. On top of that he led the team in rushing with 1,134 yards and 10 scores. Garrett Nussmeier has been around the program for several years getting enough reps to seamlessly take over. With Daniels opting out of last season’s ReliaQuest Bowl, Nussmeier had himself a day throwing for 395 yards and three scores in the 35-31 win over Wisconsin.

Nussmeier isn’t the running threat Daniels was so the backs need to step up to keep the ground game churning. Josh Williams and Kaleb Jackson had only 86 carries between them in 2023 but averaged more than 5.2 yards a carry and combined for nine rushing TDs. In what has become a factory for NFL receivers, LSU will again need to replace future NFL stars with their top two receivers drafted to the show. Kyren Lacy becomes more of a threat to follow in his mates’ footsteps. There is bound to be some regression from a group that was so potent last season and needs to replace several key components. But behind what is considered one of the best lines in the country, the Tigers should be another juggernaut.

If the defense was slightly better 2023 could have been a magical year. It wasn’t and the Tigers allowed at least 30 points in eight games to finish 79th nationally in points allowed. And that was the good news. The Tigers were torched by Ole Miss, Alabama, Florida and even Wisconsin had more than 500 total yards in the bowl game. Blake Baker is the new coordinator and if the Tigers are slightly better than last year’s version more Ws are out there. That’s a big IF, though.

Schedule

The Tigers got ambushed last season playing Alabama and Ole Miss on the road. Those were two shootouts that LSU lost. Those opponents come to Death Valley this year as does Vanderbilt and Oklahoma. Some of the SEC’s best in Georgia, Missouri and Tennessee are not on the slate, but that doesn’t make it any easier. The Tigers dropped their opener in both seasons under Kelly and have another stiff test this year against USC in Las Vegas. A better start would go a long way toward helping the Tigers finally get over the 9-win hump.

Prediction

There is no team on the schedule the Tigers can’t beat but that doesn’t mean they’re going to win. The SC game is challenging with several new parts debuting and the SEC slate is always difficult. However, among all those teams I can see at least three losses, especially with a defense that struggled so mightily last year and is counting on a year of maturity to improve.

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