CFB Futures – 2024 North Carolina Tar Heels Win Total Odds

The North Carolina Tar Heels have left a lot of fans wanting more. They haven’t been bad in fact they’ve been good in the second stint of the Mack Brown era winning at least seven games in four of the past five seasons and even reaching the ACC Championship in the 2022 season. The Heels went 8-5 last season matching the third-most wins for the program since 1997, which was the end of Brown’s first stay in Chapel Hill. The offense has always been strong, but a suspect defense has kept UNC from reaching loftier goals. For the first time in Brown’s second stint there is uncertainty surrounding the quarterback position leaving the Heels with a win total of 7.5 at BetMGM.

Regular Season Wins for the North Carolina Tar Heels

Over 7.5 ( -120 )

Under 7.5 ( -110 )

Some late season collapses have prevented the Heels from joining the elite of the college football world. They opened last season with six straight wins only to finish with five losses in their last seven games, including a setback to West Virginia in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl. The close to the 2022 season was worse. After a 9-1 start they lost their last four games, one as a 22.5-point favorite against Georgia Tech and a 29-point beatdown by Clemson in the ACC Championship. They always have enough talent to win around eight games and 2024 looks no different.

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Roster

Figuring out the quarterback position will definitely help the bottom line. After Sam Howell and most recently Drake Maye directed potent offenses, the Heels are likely to turn to SEC transfer Max Johnson to keep the numbers up and that’s a good bet under the tutelage of coordinator Chip Lindsey. The former Troy head coach had the Heels atop the ACC and eighth in the country in total offense with over 491 yards a game. They also ranked among the top 20 nationally in rushing, passing and points per game. 

Johnson has plenty of experience at big time programs starting 14 games at LSU and eight at Texas AM. During his collegiate career he’s thrown for over 5,800 yards with 47 touchdowns and just 12 interceptions. Lacking the mobility of his predecessors, the Heels will probably use a more standard offense with Omarion Hampton to get a bulk of the carries out of the backfield. Hampton rushed for 1,504 yards, fifth best in the FBS, and averaged nearly 6.0 yards per pop with 15 TDs. He’s also a threat in the passing game with 29 receptions for 222 yards and a score.

A plus in the passing game is having J.J. Jones back in the mix. He led the team with 46 catches and 711 receiving yards while grabbing three TDs. One thing we’ve seen from the Heels under Lindsey is that they spread the ball around. Four players had more than 40 catches last season and an influx of new talent should benefit. The Heels also boast an outstanding tight end duo of Bryson Nesbit and John Copenhaver, who combined for 59 catches and nine TDs.

The offense should be just fine, but cashing the OVER on this CFB futures bet requires a shaky defense to make some adjustments. A season ago the unit allowed more than 404 yards and 27.3 points per game. When they held opponents to fewer than 390 total yards the Heels were 6-0. They are built for shootouts mainly because they have to be. If the stop group is average the Heels can win at least eight games. If not we could see another epic end-of-year nosedive. Kaimon Rucker is a disruptor up front posting 8.5 sacks and 15 TFLs a season ago. Getting that kind of production from a few others makes the group a heck of a lot better.

Schedule

There are a few things working in UNC’s favor when it comes to the schedule. The Heels don’t have to face Clemson or Louisville, two favorites to win the ACC, and Miami is off the docket. Outside of their Week 10 visit to Florida State, the conference road schedule isn’t overly daunting with Duke, Virginia and BC. The season opener at Minnesota and the Week 4 date with James Madison headline non-conference games with a realistic chance of going 4-0 heading into league play. And the Heels don’t have to travel across the country for a game. The make-or-break contest is likely the finale against NC State, which has won three straight and six of eight over UNC in the series.

Prediction

Too many times over the last few years the Heels have let us down. However, given a manageable schedule and what should be a better more experienced defense, I’m going to back the OVER on this futures bet. Johnson is a good QB with weapons at his disposal, and Mack Brown-coached teams are usually good for eight wins. 

Check the North Carolina Win Total at BetMGM