CFB Futures – 2024 Oklahoma Sooners Win Total Odds

Moving to the Southeastern Conference comes with hazards. Sure, the Oklahoma Sooners were among the elite programs in the Big 12, but they hadn’t been to a conference championship game since 2019 and just two years ago had their first losing season since 1997. The Brent Venables era has been a roller coaster with the team going 6-7 overall in his 2022 rookie season. The Sooners responded in a big way last year cashing the OVER on their CFB futures bet by going 10-2 in the regular season. A loss to rival Oklahoma State cost them a trip to the conference championship, but it was a good primer for the move to the toughest conference in college football. And with the change of location comes a tougher schedule and win total of 7.5 at BetMGM.

Regular Season Wins for the Oklahoma Sooners

Over 7.5 ( -130 )

Under 7.5 ( +110 )

The transition season was a big one for the program. The Sooners expect to be playing for conference titles and national championships, something they did regularly under Bob Stoops and Lincoln Riley. While the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow is there in the SEC, the Sooners no longer have the comfort of being a top dog. The offense has a number of changes ahead of their first SEC season with the Sooners’ success depending largely on the development of quarterback Jackson Arnold. As a result OU’s win total is two full games lower than it was just a season ago.

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Roster

Having to replace a number of starters on both sides of the football isn’t an ideal scenario for the move to the SEC. But this is Oklahoma and outside the 2022 season where injuries and failing to closeout games cost them, they’ve been really good. The Sooners annually attract top talent and that’s remained even through the coaching change. One of those recruits takes over the offense after dipping his toes in the system last year. But to make the Sooners an immediate threat in the SEC, Arnold has to be great. 

Behind Dillon Gabriel the Sooners boasted one of the best offenses in the country last year. They averaged more than 502 yards and 43.2 points to rank among the top 5 nationally. With Gabriel off to Oregon Jackson has been handed the reins. He was exceptional at times but also showed his inexperience. In his OU debut Jackson completed all 11 of his passes for 114 yards and a touchdown. With Gabriel opting out of the bowl game against Arizona, Jackson threw for 361 yards and two TDs but was responsible for four turnovers. The talent is there and hopefully for the Sooners so is consistency.

The Sooners averaged nearly 322 yards through the air and Jackson has a group of receivers that can rival the best in the SEC. Nic Anderson is a legitimate deep threat averaging 21 yards a catch last season with 10 of those going for TDs tying for the team lead. Several other quality pass catches arrived through the transfer portal. While it isn’t a huge concern, how quickly the line comes together will help the efficiency.

A highly-regarded defensive coordinator before taking the OU gig, Venables needs his charges to be a lot better. The group ranked 122nd two years ago and improved to 79th in 2023. However, to contend in the SEC the D has to be better and it starts with a veteran group of skilled linebackers and a deep secondary. OU was good in the turnover department leading the Big 12 in 2023 with 26 takeaways, including 20 interceptions, the second-most in the FBS.

Schedule

Welcome to the SEC! The first season is going to be a doozy starting with the conference opener against Tennessee in Week 4. In order to have any chance at cashing the OVER in this CFB futures bet OU has to win non-conference games against Temple, Houston, Tulane and Maine. Then the fun really begins. Georgia is not on the slate, which is a plus, but playing road games at Auburn, Ole Miss, Missouri and LSU is demanding. Then there’s the Week 11 contest with Alabama and the Red River Rivalry game with Texas.

Prediction

The win total is low but it corresponds with the schedule. There really is no SEC game that you can say is a sure thing. Even the Week 8 home game with South Carolina can be problematic. And it’s hard to imagine the offense being as good as last year’s version even if Arnold balls out. The defense has been a question mark and I’m not sure enough has been done to make them a serious challenger leaving OU at seven wins tops.

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