CFB Futures – 2024 Oregon Ducks Win Total Odds

Moving to a new conference for the 2024 season shouldn’t prevent the Oregon Ducks from maintaining the level excellence they’ve achieved in past years. The Ducks won at least 10 games in four of the past five seasons and they probably would’ve made it a clean sweep if not for the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign. Despite all the success the program hasn’t reached the College Football Playoff since the first version back in 2014 and that’s likely to change with the field expanded and the Ducks boasting an impressive roster. How well they adapt to the rigors of a Big Ten schedule remains to be seen but oddsmakers at BetMGM expect it to be smooth slapping Oregon with the highest win total total on the board at 10.5.

Regular Season Wins for the Oregon Ducks

Over 10.5 ( -115 )

Under 10.5 ( -105 )

Most everyone will agree that overall the Big Ten is a stronger league than the Pac-12 was. And the Ducks have just the guy to lead them into unchartered territory. Georgia’s defensive coordinator for three years before taking the reins in 2022, Dan Lanning knows a few things about tough conferences and winning national championships. His Dawgs won it all in 2021 with a perfect SEC regular season. He’s done just fine in Eugene and is coming off an 11-win regular season and a victory over unbeaten Liberty in the Fiesta Bowl.

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Roster

It should be hard for the Ducks to duplicate what they did offensively last season. Behind Bo Nix they had the best passing attack in the country and they were second nationally in total yards (531.4) and points (44.2) per game. They scored more than 30 points in every game topping 50 three times, including 81 points against FCS Portland State. This is far from the same offense now that Nix, leading rusher Bucky Irving and top receiver Troy Franklin departed. But expecting a drop in production would be foolish. 

I’m not going to say the offense will be better but it will be just as dynamic with talented new faces. Responsible to keep the unit humming is Oklahoma transfer via UCF Dillon Gabriel, and he looks like a good fit for an offense that uses quick passes. Last year with the Sooners Gabriel completed nearly 70 percent of his passes for 3,660 yards with 30 touchdowns and only six interceptions. He also ran for 373 yards and 12 scores. The O line had a lot to do with the success through the air and the group is loaded with as many as three next level performers.

As has been the case since the Chip Kelly days, the Ducks just reload with superstar players. Several have waited for their chance and the time is now. Jordan James averaged more than seven yards a carry last year and scored 11 TDs. And while inexperienced the RB group has speed and a ton of upside. The same goes for the receivers led by Tez Johnson, who had nearly 1,200 receiving yards and 10 TDs a season ago. Texas AM transfer Evan Stewart is another threat, so the offense will be fine.

Overlooked by what the offense did last year, the Ducks had the Pac-12s top scoring defense and allowed only 318.4 yards a game. The turnover is consequential on this side of the ball, but blue chip transfers are patching the holes. The secondary had a near complete makeover with experienced transfers Jabbar Muhammad and Kam Alexander expected to play significant roles stopping opposing QBs.

Schedule

Six teams boast a double-digit win total at BetMGM with two of them in the Big Ten. And those teams are scheduled to meet in Week 7 when the Ducks host Ohio State. The loser of that game has a good chance of cashing the UNDER on their CFB futures bet. Keeping their ties to the Pac-12, the Ducks also get UCLA in Week 5 and close the regular season against Washington, a team they lost to twice in 2023. There is a stretch of eight straight weeks of Big Ten play, but they don’t have to deal with Penn State, Iowa or USC, so that’s a plus. And the non-conference slate is a challenge with Boise State and Oregon State in Weeks 2 and 3.

Prediction

I was wrong about the Ducks last year picking them to go UNDER their win total and I have to do it again since the schedule seems more challenging and the defense isn’t going to be as nasty. I do believe the offense will carry the torch and the Ducks are deep at the skill positions. They just don’t have a lot of experience and an injury to Gabriel could be devastating. If they don’t win 11 games they’ll be close, but there are landmines.

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