CFB Futures – 2024 Tennessee Volunteers Win Total Odds

After years of mediocre play the Tennessee Volunteers have become relevant again under Josh Heupel. Taking over a program that had losing seasons in three of the previous four years, Heupel led the Vols to a 7-6 mark in 2021, which was only the beginning. In 2022, they won 11 games, something that hadn’t been done in Knoxville in over two decades. They slipped a bit last year winning eight regular season games plus the Citrus Bowl, doing so with opponents paying closer attention to them. This is a transition year with a number of key positions looking for new starters, but the Vols have that swagger back and you can expect them to win plenty of games, though reaching their projected win total might be a stretch.

Regular Season Wins for the Tennessee Volunteers

Over 9 ( +101 )

Under 9 ( -122 )

When you win nine games, including a bowl, and some consider the season a failure I guess you can say you’ve arrived as a program. In the Vols’ case they’ve arrived again. In his first three years on the job Heupel has 27 wins, the best three-season stretch for the program since Philip Fulmer was running the operation in the early 2000s. There is work to be done, however, with plenty of turnover on both sides of the football, yet oddsmakers at BetMGM have their win total at 9. Coming off an 11-win season and with a more experienced roster, last year’s win total was 9.5 with the Vols cashing the UNDER on the CFB futures bet.

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Roster

Throughout his coaching career Heupel has been an innovater on offense. That isn’t surprising since he was a successful quarterback during his playing days at Oklahoma. Two years ago the Vols led the nation in total offense and scoring getting a monumental campaign from Hendon Hooker. There was a dip in production last year with the Vols ranked 19th nationally averaging 448.1 yards, nearly 80 yards per game less. Heupel and his staff have a way of getting the most out of their talent and the quarterback spot is the biggest.

Joe Milton had big shoes to fill last year and he did an admirable job, though as a whole the group wasn’t as explosive as the 2022 team. And for the third straight year the Vols will be breaking in a new QB. However, unlike programs that invest heavily in the transfer portal, Tennessee has its new starters within the program. In 2022 Milton backed up Hooker and last year Nico Iamaleava was the backup to Milton. Now it’s Nico’s time.

In limited action Iamaleava was 28 of 45 passing for 314 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. He also rushed for 71 yards and three scores. He has size and athleticism to be special and we caught a glimpse of his talent in last year’s Citrus Bowl win over Iowa. Iamaleava was 12 of 19 for 151 yards and a TD and he added three more scores on the ground in the 35-0 shellacking. The young QB has a chance to show off in the passing game with a gifted set of receivers led by Squirrel White, who had team-highs of 67 receptions and 803 yards in 2023.

With the offense putting up video game numbers, the guys on the other side of the football have been overlooked. Last year the Vols were 22nd nationally against the run and 23 in scoring defense. They also ranked 31st in total defense. Key parts to the group return with James Pearce Jr. back to bring the heat. His 10.0 sacks and 14.5 TFLs helped the Vols rank among the top 10 in the FBS in both categories. 

Schedule

Can a schedule be both good and bad? The good part is that the Vols don’t have Auburn, Ole Miss, Texas, Texas AM, Missouri and LSU on the slate. However, they are at Oklahoma in Week 4 and at Georgia in Week 10. They also have home dates with Florida and Alabama back-to-back in mid-October. The Week 2 non-conference tilt with NC State in Charlotte could also be troublesome. This is the SEC and the other games will take some effort to win, but the Vols should get them. However, losing three games is quite possible.

Prediction

You have to figure 10 wins is the minimum for a CFP berth and the Vols are a contender for the expanded field. They do need a lot of things to go right in order to hit double figures and to me that’s asking a lot. Iamaleava is a talent but he’s inexperienced and the running game isn’t going to churn out the yards like it did a season ago. The Vols will operate at a hectic pace and the offense will score, but can they do enough to keep the defense rested? I don’t think so, making the UNDER a CFB best bet

Bet the Tennessee win total at BetMGM