CFB Futures – 2024 Texas Longhorns Win Total Odds

After years of claiming they are one of the best college football teams in the country, the Texas Longhorns have a chance to prove it in their first season in the toughest conference in America. And they are well situated for the transfer with a deep roster loaded with playmakers on both sides of the football. The Horns exited the Big 12 in style winning 12 games, only the second double-digit win season in the past 14, beating Oklahoma State for the conference title and advancing to the College Football Playoff. They’ll have to do it all over again as a member of the SEC and there was no Georgia in the Big 12.

Regular Season Wins for the Texas Longhorns

Over 10 ( -135 )

Under 10 ( +115 )

The Longhorns were never really bad they just didn’t live up to the lofty expectations heaped upon them by an entitled fan base. Okay, maybe the Charlie Strong era wasn’t so good, but they did win 32 games and four bowls in four seasons of Tom Herman, which eventually wasn’t good enough. Steve Sarkisian was given a longer leash and just three years ago debuted in Austin with a losing record. Now the Longhorns are poised to make noise in the SEC with a win total of 10 at BetMGM. They are one of six teams with a double-digit futures odds win total.

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Roster

They haven’t had the sustained success recently on the gridiron that teams like Alabama, Georgia and Clemson have enjoyed during the CFP era, but with a stacked roster bigger things are expected of the Longhorns in 2024. A closer look at last season reveals the Horns may not have been as good as their record. They went OVER their projected win total of 9.5 last year losing only to Oklahoma during the regular season. But there were close calls against Houston, Kansas State and TCU and they have a difficult stretch of games on this year’s slate with little margin for error.

The return of Quinn Ewers was a massive coup for the offense. His experience and leadership will be monstrous getting a new set of receivers acclimated to the program. Ewers completed 69 percent of his passes for 3,479 yards with 22 touchdowns and only six interceptions. Ewers will also help in the development of backup Arch Manning, who could push for playing time in 2024. Not only was the offense balanced it also adapted to stressful situations. The Horns ranked 17th nationally in passing, 25th in rushing and were ninth in total offense.

Receivers Isaiah Bond, Silas Bolden and Matthew Golden transferred in as did tight end Amari Niblack and all are penciled in for roles in the passing game. Roster depth is already being challenged after projected starting RB C.J. Baxter was lost for the season to a knee injury in training camp. Instead of sharing the backfield, Jaydon Blue becomes the primary option. Blue averaged 6.1 yards per carry with three TDs in limited touches. They grow em big down thar in Texas and the line is massive and good allowing the offense to put up big numbers.

The defense could regress with the loss of an Outland Trophy winner, the Big 12’s Defensive Lineman of the Year and a first-team All-Big 12 linebacker. Don’t expect the unit to become a sieve, though. There is a lot of returning talent and the transfer portal bolstered a line that helped the Horns rank fourth against the run. They gave up a lot of yards through the air, but that’s expected when opponents have to throw the football. Overall the Horns allowed 336.7 yards and fewer than 20 points a game a season ago.

Schedule

There are four games on the schedule that appear problematic. The Week 2 tilt at Michigan is scary even though the Wolverines won’t be as good. In Week 7 the Red River Rivalry resumes against OU in Dallas followed by a home game against Georgia. Also, tensions will be high in the regular season finale against Texas AM. Just splitting those games gives you a push on the CFB futures bet and with the UNDER juiced to +115 that looks sound. Besides, there are other potential pitfalls like the Week 9 matchup with Florida and the Week 11 encounter with Kentucky. 

Prediction

Playing a SEC schedule is going to test the Longhorns and a date with Michigan early isn’t going to be easy. Texas caught a number of breaks last season winning 11 regular season games and I really don’t think they are as good as last year’s club. The loss of Baxter impacts the run game and a cadre of new receivers will make Ewers work more. I also don’t expect them to be as good on defense turning one or two of those close wins last year into a loss in 2024. 

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