NFL Betting Parlays – Conference Championship Games
January 26, 2024Slots Tournaments at BetRivers
January 29, 2024Reflecting upon the outcomes of my division round NFL player prop best bets at Caesars Sportsbook, the word ‘frustrating’ aptly encapsulates the overall experience.
In the first half against the Baltimore Ravens, C.J. Stroud threw the ball 20 times putting us on pace to hit the over of his pass attempts with ease. However, due to the Ravens’ dominating the time of possession battle in the second half by limiting the Houston Texans to a 33.3 percent success rate on third down, Stroud’s pass attempts were capped at 33 for the game which saw the Offensive Rookie of the Year Award winner narrowly come up short of going over his NFL prop bets.
Despite the San Francisco 49ers keeping it a one-score game through three quarters, they leaned heavily on quarterback Brock Purdy’s arm to challenge the Green Bay Packers’ robust pass defense, rather than utilizing Christian McCaffrey’s rushing prowess, leading to Purdy surpassing his 30.5 player prop bets with ease. McCaffrey exceeded his rushing yards NFL props but came up well short of the +500 alt-line lottery ticket.
It would’ve been an euphoric way to start a Sunday had Baker Mayfield thrown for just one more yard! Doing so would have made us big winners (+625), combining it with a lucrative +475 ticket cash on Mike Evans’ alternative receiving yards (125), which proved to be my best NFL props bet of the weekend. Instead, we ended with a slight loss prop betting the division round. Here’s to getting right back into the black with some Championship Sunday player prop bets – SLAM YOUR MAN!!
Bet Division Round Player Props at Caesars Sportsbook
Isiah Pacheco 16+ Rush Attempts +120 | Isiah Pacheco 100+ Rushing Yards +310 | Lamar Jackson 100+ Rushing Yards +320
The AFC title game will have many an NFL prop bettor tuning in to see Patrick Mahomes square off against Lamar Jackson with a trip to Super Bowl LVIII on the line. While each gunslinger is readily able to take over the game, neither passing attack will ultimately lead either team to victory in this win or go home bout. While Mahomes and Jackson will get theirs due to being surrounded by fabulous pass catching options like Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice, Zay Flowers, Odell Beckham Jr., and the now healthy Mark Andrews, it’ll ultimately be the ground games that find one of these teams buckling their chin straps on Super Bowl Sunday.
As frugal a defense Mike Macdonald marches out onto the gridiron, his run D has proven to be susceptible with it serving up 109+ yards per game (#14) to go along with a healthy 4.4 yards per carry (#23). In the Ravens last six games, the run D has served up 574 yards and 4.7 yards per carry on a paltry 122 carries against. Isiah Pacheco has been on a heater since returning to the gridiron back in Week 16 going off for 342 total rushing yards on 68 overall totes of the pigskin.
He nearly hit the century mark against the Bills last week to smash his 60.5 rushing yards prop, and enters this match having exceeded NFL player prop bets for his supporters three straight times. I’m betting on another huge showing from No. 10!
Like Baltimore, the Chiefs excel at defending the pass (#4) but have had all kinds of issues against the run in allowing 113.2 yards per game (#18) and 4.5 yards per carry (#25). Per “The Edge” from the33rdteam.com, Steve Spagnuolo’s stop unit has also had its fair share of issues against dual-threat quarterbacks serving up 342 yards to go along with 3.8 yards per carry. George Karlaftis and Co. are yet to run up against a specimen quite like Lamar Jackson who ran roughshod upon the Texans last week for 100 rushing yards and a couple scores; making a mockery of his 55.5 rushing yards prop.
I’ll swing for the fences and expect the soon to be named MVP to mimic that feat with the runway clear for takeoff against a Chiefs defense that’s seen the most rush attempts (91) and red zone touches against the quarterback position.
Christian McCaffrey Over 4.5 Receptions -127 | Brandon Aiyuk 125+ Receiving Yards +300 | George Kittle 100+ Receiving Yards +300
The Detroit Lions boast the best run defense among the four teams participating in Championship Sunday, with Terry Glenn’s squad only allowing 87.7 yards per game (#2) and 3.8 yards per carry (#3). Although Christian McCaffrey’s rushing yards NFL player prop has increased since opening 81.5, I’m hesitant to invest in him again, knowing it might require another significant run, similar to his 39-yard dash last week against the Packers, to surpass his now 87.5-yard impost at Caesars.
To counter the steam, NFL prop bettors have looked to his receptions instead. Per “The Edge” from the33rdteam.com, the Lions have only conceded 69 receptions to opposing running backs for an average of 3.6 receptions per game. That being said, I just don’t think the Lions have the athletes in the front seven to contend with the copious amount of dump-offs CMC will get his paws on. With that, I’ll join the party!
While the Niners’ premier running back will certainly influence the game, my attention turns to the San Francisco 49ers wide receivers, fully aware that the Lions defense has struggled against the pass. In the playoffs, they’ve surrendered 716 passing yards and five touchdowns to quarterbacks Matthew Stafford and Baker Mayfield.
Insert Brock Purdy and a 49ers passing attack enriched with upper echelon pass catching threats in the forms of Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle. If Deebo Samuel is unable to go, the duo will become even more formidable; especially the former who seemingly goes HAM every time Samuel watches on from the sideline.
The prop betting strategy to take here is to expect a huge showing from No. 11 regardless! His receiving yards prop has already been steamed up to 81.5 from the 69.5 opener, but that’s still short in my opinion. Evans’ performance last week is still fresh on the mind, but don’t forget about what Puka Nacua did the week prior (9/181/1). Let’s take a flier on George Kittle as well with Detroit serving up 92 receptions (#22) and 1,048 yards (#27) to opposing tight ends.
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Bet NFL Player Props at Caesars Sportsbook