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December 20, 2024The second installment of Saturday’s College Football Playoff First Round slate takes college football bettors to Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin where the No. 5 Texas Longhorns will look to set the tone for a run to the title national championship against the No. 12 Clemson Tigers. Last we saw Steve Sarkisian’s troops in live action, they choked away an opportunity of snagging a first round bye by dropping a 22-19 overtime decision to the Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC title game. As for Dabo Swinney’s kids, they played their way into the 12-team field by escaping with a 34-31 win over SMU to punch a ticket back into the CFP off a three-year hiatus.
Texas hit the board 11-point favorites to advance with the total lined 53 at BetMGM Sportsbook. Current action reports find a bulk of the NCAAF odds betting interest going the way of the homebased Horns who’ve taken in 55% of the bets and 60+ percent of the money forcing a 1-point market correction to -12. Total bettors expect this matchup to play out to one of the more lower scoring first round matchups with a heavy percentage of the written tickets and nearly 90 percent of the booked handle aligned with the under forcing a 1.5-point line move down to 51.5.
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Clemson Tigers vs. Texas Longhorns CFB Same Game Parlay:
With leading rusher Phil Mafah banged up and not expected to play much of a role in this game, the Tigers ability to hang against a substantially better Texas team will ultimately come down to Cade Klubnik’s ability to fend off a Longhorns defense that ranks out amongst the best in the country. The junior gunslinger brought his “A” game to the field in the ACC title game win over SMU after torching the Mustangs porous pass defense for 262 yards and 4 TD without an interception thrown. His favorite target in that game, and the whole season for that matter, has been frosh standout Bryant Wesco who hauled in 8 of 11 targets and turned them into 143 yards and a couple scores. He, along with Antonio Williams, T.J. Moore, and Jake Briningstool, comprise a pass catching corps that ranks 17th in the nation in averaging just short of 275 yards per game. The unit’s task of solving the riddle that’s been the nation’s best pass defense will go a long way in determining whether the Tigers have enough in the tank to keep this game competitive and put the team in a position to pull out what I would consider a shocking upset.
If not for being forced to run up against the Georgia Bulldogs twice, at home and in a neutral setting, Texas would enter College Football Playoff betting the only other undefeated team. But they did have to face Kirby’s Dawgs twice, and the Longhorns proved they weren’t up to the task—largely in part to Quinn Ewers and the offense simply being unable to flex its muscles against another stout UGA defense. Why Sarkisian chose not to give Arch Manning a bit more burn in the rematch still has me scratching my head. Regardless, the Longhorns possess the ground game and aerial attack that should be able to do as it pleases against a lesser Tigers defense that ranks 65th overall and rated out below average against both the run (#72) and pass (#61) in a conference well below the standards exhibited in the SEC. The backfield boasts a bell cow in Tre Wisner, and has plenty of pass catching excellence in the stable with WR Matthew Golden and TE Gunnar Helm leading the charge. Both phases of the Horns’ attack should simply do as it pleases against a very beatable Clemson stop unit.
Texas hasn’t delivered a dominant performance since demolishing Florida 49-17 as 23-point home favorites in early November. Still smarting from their recent overtime loss to Georgia and Clemson backing into the CFP with a last second win over SMU, the stage is set for the top to pop off in Austin. Simply put, Clemson doesn’t appear to belong on the same field as a Texas team loaded with talent that’s recently struggled to impose its will. Expect a breakout performance Saturday, with Quinn Ewers leading the charge. The quarterback has faced heavy criticism throughout the season, much of it warranted, but there’s no better opportunity to silence doubters than on this grand stage. With a win, Texas will advance to face an overrated Arizona State squad on the same fast track of the Mercedes-Benz Stadium turf where they recently fell to Georgia—a prime chance to wash the taste of that loss right out of their collective mouth.
- TEXAS LONGHORNS -12
- TEXAS LONGHORNS OVER 31.5 POINTS SCORED
- QUINN EWERS OVER 257.5 PASSING YARDS