College Football Betting Line Moves for Week 1

How much stock do you put into college football betting line moves?  Some bettors follow them religiously, while other bettors are more wary. If you followed the big line moves, or so-called “steam” moves in Week zero, you got crushed. There were four games and all four underdogs covered the big spreads with one winning outright. Those people who chased the steam moves went 1-3 ATS. Will things change in Week 1?  It is important to note that Week 1 is much different than the rest of the season because these lines have been up for months so bettors have had plenty of time to decide which way they want to go.  There are also a lot more moves than in a normal week, as numerous games moved three points or more. Let’s look at three of the biggest line moves for Week 1 with two of the three games involving teams that played last week.

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College Football Week 1 Major Line Moves

Nevada at Troy

A big line move occurred on this game, as the Trojans opened as a 15.5-point home favorite and the number is down to 9.5. Nevada has already played a game, as they took on SMU in Week zero and actually played pretty well. The Wolfpack lost 29-24 but easily covered the spread. The so-called wise guys were all over SMU in that game, as the Mustangs opened as low as a -20 favorite in some places and closed as a 27-point favorite. Is this an overreaction to Nevada playing well last week?

Southern Mississippi at Kentucky

The steam move in this game is on the Wildcats, as they opened up as a 23.5-point favorite and the line is up to 27.5. Not many people want anything to do with Southern Miss on the road. Kentucky is thought to be a good bet in this spot, as they have won their last 20 non-conference games. Kentucky leads the all-time series against Southern Miss 3-1. The Golden Eagles lone win in the series came in 2016 but they have since lost 11 straight games against power conference opponents, including eight in a row to SEC teams. 

Southern Miss was routed last season 66-13 at Florida State and 41-20 by Mississippi State. Southern Miss goes into this season with new coordinators on both sides of the ball. The Southern Miss defense gave up more than 30 points in eight of their 12 games and allowed more than 40 points six times, more than 50 points three times and gave up more than 60 points once.

Boston College at Florida State

The last game of the NCAA football schedule for Week 1 has Boston College visiting Florida State. The steam move is on the underdog Eagles in this game, as FSU opened as a 21.5-point favorite and the line is down to 17.5.  FSU was one of the teams to play last week and it was not a good beginning for Florida State, as they lost outright to Georgia Tech. That defeat may have already pushed FSU out of any consideration for the College Football Playoff.  Bettors definitely don’t like the Seminoles, as this line has moved four points.

How will FSU react to last week’s loss?  One thing that is clear is that DJ Uiagalelei may not be the answer at QB for Florida State. He was 19 of 27 passes for 193 yards, with no touchdowns and no interceptions last week. Almost all of his pass completions were short, as he was just 2-for-5 on passes of 15 yards or more. Another thing that is clear is that the so-called great Florida State defensive line is not great at all. The Yellow Jackets rushed for 5.3 yards per attempt, and four different players gained 10 yards or more. 

Florida State still has a chance to make the College Football Playoff but only if they win the ACC, as conference champions get an automatic bid. This game against BC is a must-win for Florida State but bettors don’t believe it will be easy, as they are taking the Eagles plus the points.Check out the latest college football odds at Prime Sports.