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October 11, 2024With the late afternoon’s NFL betting slate only comprised of four matchups and three looking largely unattractive, all eyes will be on “Jerry World” when the Detroit Lions return looking to avenge the win stolen from them by the Dallas Cowboys in Week 17 of last season. Dan Campbell’s troops enter this tilt the more rested of the two teams coming in off a bye, while Mike McCarthy’s squad scored a last second 20-17 win in the Steel City to climb over the .500 mark for the first time. Big D has taken the two most recent meetings (1-1 ATS) with the under paying off twice and 34.5 points scored on average.
The lookahead NFL odds for this crucial Week 6 NFC showdown hit the board with the Lions laying 3-points and the Over/Under (O/U) set at 51. NFL bettors have hammered the visiting Lions with nearly 65% of the bets and 70+ percent of the money forcing BetMGM Sportsbook to move the number to beat up to -3.5 on two separate occasions before dropping it back down to the opener where it currently sits. A heavy dose of reverse line movement has seen the O/U jump up to 52 regardless of 70+ percent of the tickets and handle aligned with the under.
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Detroit Lions vs. Dallas Cowboys NFL Same Game Parlay:
Before we get into the dissection of this matchup on either side of the ball, let us first go back to December 30, 2023 of last season when Dallas was handed a win by Brad Allen and his referee crew. Training 20-13 with 1:41 remaining, the Lions raced up the field and punched the pigskin into the end zone to claw to within 20-19. Instead of going for the tie and rolling the dice in overtime, Campbell elected to go for two and the win. Detroit converted the try and AT&T Stadium fell silent. Until a yellow hanky found its way onto the field. Allen opened up his mic and proceeded to tell the crowd that Taylor Decker failed to report as an eligible receiver before reeling in the go-ahead score. Replay clearly showed he said something to Allen before breaking from the huddle. Regardless, the play was wiped off the board and Detroit’s second attempt failed to get home. Instead of crying about it, Campbell clearly stated in his postgame presser that he’d see them again in a couple weeks. Unfortunately, the Green Bay Packers prevented that playoff rematch from occurring. Well, there’s no avoiding the revenge bout this time around!
Though Dallas did an excellent job of holding the Steelers on the ground in last week’s road win, it enters this matchup ranked No. 24 against the run in allowing 135.0 yards per game at 4.4 yards per carry (#15). I’ll chalk last week’s showing up to Pittsburgh down a number of hogs along its O-Line paired with the wet conditions. Arthur Smith calling the shots for a Justin Fields-led attack also played a role. There will be no masking the absences of both Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence in this one! Detroit is the owner of the league’s No. 6 running game with the 1-2 punch of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery slashing through the holes the Lions upper tier O-Line opens for 4.7 yards per carry. With Aaron Glenn’s defense still giving up chunk yardage through the air (#27), Detroit will make it a point to take the air out of the ball and dominate the time of possession battle. Along the way, I foresee the Lions running game going off immediately setting the tone for the match and forcing Dak Prescott and Co. to play catchup throughout.
This is likely to be a CeeDee Lamb game with Detroit simply not possessing anyone in its secondary to keep No. 88 in check—especially after Big D’s WR1 was silenced in Pittsburgh last Sunday night. He went for 227 and a tuddy against nearly the same secondary last season! Even so, the duo’s heroics still won’t be enough to prevent the Lions from returning to the scene of the crime and avenging that nauseating defeat. Now many NFL bettors in the know will look at the NFL spread for the rematch and laugh knowing full well the Lions were upwards of 5-point dogs in last year’s visit to Arlington. From that standpoint, it’s likely Dallas plus the points or nothing. But revenge is on the menu, so I’m throwing that train of thought out the window and riding the revenge train without giving it a second thought.
- DETROIT LIONS (-3)
- JAHMYR GIBBS OVER 82.5 COMBINED YARDS
- CEEDEE LAMB 125+ RECEIVING YARDS