Division Round Same Game Parlay Picks – Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs

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Published by Mike Rose on January 16, 2025

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All eyes will be on Arrowhead Stadium late Saturday afternoon with Division Round NFL playoff betting action set to kick-off between the heavyweight defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs and challenging Houston Texans. DeMeco Ryan’s troops came up with one of the more surprising results of Wild Card Weekend after taking the wood to the Los Angeles Chargers at home in a game the team closed 3-point underdogs. As for Andy Reid’s Chiefs, the champs have been kicking back with their legs up for the last two weeks having secured the AFC’s top seed in Week 17 at Pittsburgh.

BetMGM Sportsbook opened the NFL odds for this division round tilt with the Chiefs installed 7.5-point favorites and the total lined 42. Each market has been corrected by the NFL betting market since with KC now laying 8.5-points due to being aligned with 70+ percent of the bets and 85% of the money. Though these teams combined for a high scorer on this field when they last met back in Week 16, total bettors have pushed the number to beat down a half-point to 41.5 with 70% of the tickets and 85+ percent of the handle in favor of the line move.

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Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs NFL Same Game Parlay:

The Texans secured a dominant 32-12 wild-card victory over the Los Angeles Chargers, fueled by a suffocating defense that capitalized on key turnovers. Trailing 6-0 late into the first half, Houston ignited, scoring 10 straight points with under a minute remaining to seize all momentum of the game. Houston delivered a well-rounded offensive performance with Joe Mixon and the ground game amassing 168 rushing yards and 4.9 yards per carry, while C.J. Stroud orchestrated an efficient passing attack, connecting with Nico Collins seven times for 122 yards and a touchdown.

Defensively, Houston was relentless, intercepting Justin Herbert four times while holding the Chargers to 261 total yards and 4.8 yards per play. The Texans’ aggressive approach disrupted Herbert’s rhythm, creating opportunities that swung momentum decisively in their favor. Houston will need another complete effort to reverse the Week 16 result at Kansas City which saw the Chiefs win 27-19 and cover the 3.5-point NFL spread due to a pair of Texans turnovers paired with poor red zone efficiency that allowed the home team to protect its house.

The Kansas City Chiefs enter the division round well-rested, having benefited from two full weeks to recover and get their bodies and minds right for another shot at hoisting the Lombardi. The familiarity of just hosting the Texans less than a month ago, coupled with home-field advantage, should have Kansas City extremely confident heading into the rematch.

At Arrowhead to date, the Chiefs posted a flawless 8-0 SU record but were less reliable against the NFL spread (3-5) with the games averaging 42.4 total points. When hosting playoff-bound teams, the Chiefs went 4-0 SU but a disappointing 1-3 ATS, with an average margin of victory of just 4.3 points per game and 43.3 combined points scored on average. Despite their mixed results against the closing NFL betting lines, Kansas City’s postseason experience, healthier defense, and Patrick Mahomes-led offense make the defending champs the most formidable opponent of the remaining eight teams.

Houston’s D played with its hair on fire last week. Can they bottle that effort up and take it on the road to frigid Arrowhead? The Texans failed to do so back in Week 16 allowing KC to combine for 375 total yards and convert 7 of 13 third down tries while serving up touchdowns on three of five red zone penetrations. Even so, it was a 17-16 game at the outset of the third quarter when Tank Dell’s gruesome injury completely took all the wind out of the Texans’ sail. Knowing what lies ahead having just experienced it less than a month ago, I’m having a tough time buying into the drastic adjustment linemakers have made for the rematch.

KC closed -3.5 in the first go-round, but now finds itself laying more than a possession. Why? I get the Chiefs hold a major rest advantage, but the defending champs have been a losing investment at home dating back to last season (4-6 ATS). Houston only managed one sack of No. 15 in the first meeting. I’d be shocked if Will Anderson and Co. doesn’t make amends running up against a Kansas City front wall that’s a couple notches below the units of the last two Super Bowl winning teams. Houston’s defense shows up, and keeps it competitive in a physical low scorer that’s undecided deep into the fourth quarter.