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Horse racing’s run for the Triple Crown starts Saturday with the 149th Kentucky Derby. The field of 20 of the best three-year-olds has been prepping for this race since last September with a deserving favorite emerging. A winner in six of seven starts, Forte has the top spot on the odds board at around 3/1 at BetRivers sportsbook. A full field of thoroughbreds makes horse racing handicapping tougher and that doesn’t count last minute additions. Last year Rich Strike entered after a late scratch and surprised everyone with a victory at odds of 80/1 making it the second biggest upset in Derby history. There was a stretch between 2013 and 2018 where the betting favorite won every race. That changed in 2019 when Country House at 65/1 upset the field to win the Run for the Roses and we haven’t seen the favorite win since. Forte isn’t used to losing, but there are a number of horses with the talent and bloodlines to take the blanket of roses on Saturday.
The 2023 Kentucky Derby takes place on Sunday, May 6, from Churchill Downs in Lexington, KY. Post time is 6:57 p.m. ET. The race airs live on NBC with betting options available at BetRivers.
Odds to Win 2023 Kentucky Derby
Forte +345
Tapit Trice +706
Practical Move +1016
Angel of Empire +1016
Derma Sotogake +1217
Two Phils +1405
Kingsbarns +1417
Verifying +1618
Confidence Game +1618
Skinner +1819
Mage +2306
Jaces Road +3262
Hit Show +3651
Disarm +4050
Rocket Can +4050
Reincarnate +4550
Raise Cain +5050
Sun Thunder +6050
Lord Miles +6050
Continuar +6050
What makes the Kentucky Derby horse race so exciting from a betting standpoint is the unpredictable nature of the field. At 3-years-old or younger the horses aren’t quite mature enough to run with older competition, thus a category all for them. And while oddsmakers and handicappers are usually spot on with their assessment they aren’t always right. There was that six-year run of betting favorites taking the title, but we’ve also seen some major upsets recently.
Excellent horse racing results during the prep season put Forte on the derby radar. A winner in six of seven starts, including his last five, Forte climbed to the top of the odds board following Monday’s post position draw. Trained by Todd Pletcher, who’s won the Derby twice, Forte has been among the top contenders for several months and it appears as though he’ll have little trouble handling the distance.
The Kentucky Derby is a test of endurance. No horse in the field has ever run this distance and training doesn’t properly get him acclimated to the 1 1/4 mile spread. Derma Sotogake showed he can handle the distance in a dominant UAE Derby performance and the continued rise of Japan on the world’s horse racing stage makes him a popular choice.
If Pletcher is going to win another Derby this is the year. Along with Forte, he also has the second favorite Tapit Trice entered. He’s won his last four starts including the G3 Tampa Bay Derby in March and the G1 Blue Grass Stakes last month. The colt has gotten better with each run and is a serious threat with superior closing speed.
A third Pletcher-trained horse, Kingsbarns, is also in the top half of favorites. Undefeated in three races, most recently the G2 Louisiana Derby in March, the colt doesn’t have a lot of experience and wasn’t tested in his biggest win in Louisiana. Stiffer competition makes him the unlikeliest of Pletcher’s horses to win.
Practical Move and Angel of Empire are the favorites to win if Pletcher doesn’t get to the winner’s circle. Trainer Brad Cox has noted the rapid progression of Angel of Empire. Another positive is that jockey Flavien Prat chose him over Kingsbarns. One drawback for Practical Move is the distance. With an opening burst he’s likely to be the early leader and he has as much talent as anyone in the field, but the distance is problematic. Still, wins in four of his last five starts, including the G1 Santa Anita Derby last month, make him a threat.
Kentucky Derby Pick
The favorite hasn’t won in a few years and barring a last minute addition Forte looks like the strongest horse in the group. Skinner enters after a strong prep season and continues to improve giving him a chance. However, it’s time we see the favorite wear the blanket of roses.
Check out the latest horse racing odds at BetRivers.
