THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson Odds and Picks
April 30, 2024
Kentucky Derby Longshot Picks
May 1, 2024
The first Saturday in May is always a thrilling time for horse racing enthusiasts. The first leg of the Triple Crown takes place on that day with the 150th edition of the Kentucky Derby set for Saturday, May 4. The field of 20 of the best three-year-olds has been prepping for this race since last September with a pair of deserving favorites emerging. Trying to reverse a recent trend of upset winners in the “Run for the Roses” are Fierceness and Sierra Leone. The two are neck and neck at the top of the horse racing odds at shorter than 4/1 on the early line at Caesars sportsbook.
A full field of thoroughbreds makes horse racing picks tougher and that doesn’t count last minute additions. Two years ago Rich Strike entered after a late scratch and surprised everyone with a victory at odds of 80/1 making it the second biggest upset in Derby history. There was a stretch between 2013 and 2018 where the betting favorite won every race. That changed in 2019 when Country House at 65/1 upset the field to win the Run for the Roses and we haven’t seen the favorite win since. Mage had shorter odds last year at 14/1 and emerged from the crowded field.
The 2024 Kentucky Derby takes place on Saturday, May 4, from Churchill Downs in Lexington, KY. Post time is 6:57 p.m. ET. The race airs live on NBC with betting options available at Caesars.
Odds to Win 2024 Kentucky Derby
Fierceness +287
Sierra Leone +389
Catching Freedom +1138
Forever Young +1207
Just a Touch +1529
Dornoch +1831
Mystik Dan +1831
Honor Marie +2146
Track Phantom +2266
Resilience +2275
Stronghold +2276
Domestic Product +2477
Encino +2648
Endlessly +2678
Just Steel +3240
Catalytic +4292
T O Password +4939
Grand Mo the First +6301
Society Man +6602
West Saratoga +7924
What makes the Kentucky Derby horse race so exciting from a betting standpoint is the unpredictable nature of the field. At 3-years-old or younger the horses aren’t quite mature enough to run with older competition, thus a category all for them. And while oddsmakers and handicappers are usually spot on with their assessment they aren’t always right. There was that six-year run of betting favorites taking the title, but we’ve also seen some major upsets recently.
Excellent horse racing results during the prep season put Fierceness in the favorite slot. He won the G1 Florida Derby at the end of March by a record 13 1/2 lengths and has three wins in five career starts. There are some drawbacks to the favorite, though. He’s inexperienced with only three graded races on his resume. And some might question his lineage since sire City of Lights was never a Triple Crown contender. However, we know genes can skip a generation.
The Kentucky Derby is a test of endurance. No horse in the field has ever run this distance and training doesn’t properly get them acclimated to the 1 1/4 mile length. Locked into the second tier of favorites, Forever Young had an eye-opening win at the UAE Derby in his most recent start. It was noteworthy because the 1 3/16 miles is closer in distance to what he’ll see at the Kentucky Derby. The Japanese-bred colt has never lost in five starts also claiming the G3 Saudi Derby in February.
Since we’re talking favorites I’d be remiss if Sierra Leone wasn’t mentioned. Some pundits claim the second favorite’s convincing win at the Kentucky Derby prep G2 Risen Star was more impressive than the Fierceness win at the Florida Derby. And to prove a point, Sierra Leone most recently beat a stacked field at the Blue Grass Stakes in his final prep race.
When it comes to value picks Catching Freedom stands out among the several candidates. His remarkable comeback to win the Louisiana Derby in late March gave notice to the horse racing community. It was also impressive that his late charge came in the 1 3/16 miles race, the longest Kentucky Derby prep race. The Brad Cox-trained colt has experienced the Churchill Downs race track winning his debut in October 2023, the first of his three victories in five career starts.
Bet the 2024 Kentucky Derby
Horse racing odds suggest a close race with a top-heavy group on the odds board. Five horses have 15/1 or shorter odds with Fierceness and Sierra Leone standing out. As we’ve seen recently in the Kentucky Derby, though, anything can happen. There are a few longshots that stand out to me with Forever Young and Catching Freedom offering good payouts. Dornoch had three straight wins and never finished lower than second before a disappointing fourth at the G1 Blue Grass Stakes. Also, Honor Marie impressed with a runner-up at the Louisiana Derby and also won at Churchill Downs last year.
Check out the latest horse racing odds at Caesars sportsbook.
