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July 11, 2023
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July 11, 2023
The Indianapolis Colts are looking to bounce back from a grotesque 2022-23 campaign, where they went 4-12-1 and only managed six covers against the NFL odds all the while missing out on postseason play for the second time in as many years. The firing of Frank Reich was necessary with the team grossly failing to live up to preseason expectations that had many a sportsbook installing them chalk favorites to win the AFC South, but Jeff Saturday wasn’t the answer. In a complete reversal of fortunes,PointsBet Sportsbook is very much so down on the now Shane Steichen-led Colts evidenced by their season win total odds all the way down to 6.5 after going off the board 10 just a short season ago. Though this team was one of the few that took a chunk out of my bankroll last season, I’m bullish on the Colts in 2022-23 and believe the lack of faith from the collective is unwarranted. Let’s analyze the Colts’ outlook for the upcoming season, explore the reasons they could surpass their win total, and consider the factors that could lead to them falling short.
Indianapolis Colts: The Rodney Dangerfield of the AFC South – No Respect!
The Colts made significant changes during the offseason, starting with the hiring of Shane Steichen as head coach. The former offensive coordinator of the Philadelphia Eagles brings a fresh perspective and an emphasis on an explosive offense that plays fast. Indianapolis hopes he can unlock the potential of its talented roster and turn its fortunes around. One key addition to the Colts’ roster is QB Anthony Richardson, whom they drafted with the fourth overall pick. Richardson, a highly touted prospect from the University of Florida, possesses a unique combination of size, speed, and arm talent. Another crucial factor for the Colts’ success in 2023 is the return to form of running back Jonathan Taylor. After an injury-riddled 2022 season, Taylor looks to regain his dominant form and provide that dynamic spark to the Colts’ rushing attack. With an improved offensive line and a renewed focus on the ground game, Taylor’s performance will be vital to the team’s overall success. Defensively, the Colts boast a formidable front seven led by defensive lineman DeForest Buckner. The unit performed well in 2022, ranking in the top half of the league in yards per play allowed and earning praise for their ability to stifle opposing offenses. With key players like Buckner and linebacker Darius Leonard leading the way, the Colts’ defense should continue to be a strength provided the revamped secondary gels quickly.
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Indianapolis Colts Season Wins Total: 6.5
No team in the AFC South possessed a worse point differential than that of the Colts (-138). That’s saying something knowing full well the Houston Texans are also members of the division. As such, oddsmakers at PointsBet are very bearish about Indy entering the regular season with its season win total odds clocking in at 6.5. You have to go all the way back to 2012 to find the last time this franchise had a win total fewer than seven. It’s gotten so bad that the team won’t have a single one of its games broadcast under the prime time lights!
Case for the Over
With Shane Steichen at the helm, the Colts’ offense is expected to take a significant step forward. His track record as an offensive coordinator with the Eagles speaks for itself, as he guided one of the league’s best offenses in 2022. The Colts can expect more explosive plays and increased scoring under his watch. While Richardson may need some time to develop, his physical tools and playmaking ability make him a promising prospect. The Colts have also brought in Gardner Minshew as an experienced backup, providing insurance and stability at the quarterback position should he not pan out early on. If Richardson exceeds expectations and quickly adapts to the NFL, the Colts’ offense could flourish. Jonathan Taylor had a season every fantasy footballer that drafted him with the No. 1 overall pick would love to forget. However, he has proven to be one of the league’s premier running backs when healthy, as evidenced by his stellar 2021 campaign. With a healthy No. 28 leading the ground assault, the Colts’ offense is an entirely different animal. Indianapolis boasts a strong defensive front led by DeForest Buckner, who consistently disrupts opposing offenses. The defensive front seven has the ability to dominate in the trenches and put pressure on quarterbacks. If they can maintain or even improve upon their solid defensive output of a year ago, it will provide a significant boost to the team’s chances of exceeding their win total.
Case for the Under
While there are reasons to be optimistic about the Colts’ prospects in 2023, several factors could contribute to them falling short of their win total. Although Anthony Richardson has immense potential, he may not be ready to start immediately. Rookie quarterbacks often face a steep learning curve in the NFL, and Richardson is no exception. If he struggles to adjust to the speed and complexity of the pro game, it could hinder the Colts’ offense and result in fewer wins. The Colts’ secondary has some question marks, particularly at cornerback. With the departure of Stefon Gilmore and the suspension of Isiah Rodgers, the Colts’ depth at the position is one of my grave concerns. If opposing quarterbacks exploit these weaknesses, it could lead to defensive breakdowns and shootout losses. The AFC South is a competitive division, with teams like the Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, and Houston Texans all looking to have improved this past offseason. The Colts had a subpar record within the division last season, and if their divisional rivals make significant strides, it could make it difficult for the Colts to exceed their win total.
Indianapolis Colts Schedule
Week 1: vs. Jaguars
Week 2: at Texans
Week 3: at Ravens
Week 4: vs. Rams
Week 5: vs. Titans
Week 6: at Jaguars
Week 7: vs. Browns
Week 8: vs. Saints
Week 9: at Panthers
Week 10: at Patriots (Germany)
Week 11: Bye Week
Week 12: vs. Buccaneers
Week 13: at Titans
Week 14: at Bengals
Week 15: vs. Steelers
Week 16: at Falcons
Week 17: vs. Raiders
Week 18: vs. Texans
Indianapolis Colts Season Win Total Analysis
The Indianapolis Colts face an important season in 2023 as they seek to rebound from a disappointing campaign the year prior. With a new head coach in Shane Steichen and the addition of promising QB Anthony Richardson, there is cause for optimism; especially with Sharp Football Analysis ranking the overall schedule strength as the third easiest overall for the second straight year. The Colts have the potential to surpass their win total of 6.5 games, thanks to an improved offense, the return of key players, and a solid defense. However, challenges such as the development of Richardson and competition within the division could hinder their progress. Ultimately, the Colts’ success will depend on their ability to overcome these obstacles and execute on the field. Though Indianapolis took a nice chunk of the bankroll away from me last season, I don’t think this team is nearly as bad as oddsmakers suggest. As such, I’ll hit the over of their reduced win total and also look to bang the high side of an alternate that offers up an even juicier return on investment.
Indianapolis Colts Season Win Total Prediction: Over 6.5 -140
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