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Did you know that big underdogs have been winning on a regular basis so far in NFL betting this year? In fact, big underdogs are off to their best start in NFL history. Teams getting seven points or more on the NFL betting line are 4-0 straight up so far this season. It is the first time that underdogs of seven points or more are even above .500 through the first three weeks of the season. That goes back into the 1950’s when sports betting was barely a blip on the radar. Now, before you get too excited about betting big underdogs this week, remember that the big underdogs are overdue to get crushed. If you think the big dogs can win outright again, you have four chances to bet them this week. Denver is catching 7.5-points at the Jets, Jacksonville is a 7-point underdog at Houston, New England is a 10-point underdog at San Francisco and the Chargers are 8.5-point home underdogs against Kansas City.
If you simply bet underdogs of six points or more this season you would be 12-1 ATS, with eight of the 13 teams winning outright. It is the best against the spread start for big underdogs in NFL history.
Bet Week 4 NFL Games at BetMGM.
One NFL betting trend that usually does well is betting against the public and if you have gone against the public this season you are off to a great start. The public is 17-30-1 ATS this season. Keep in mind that the number in this case for the betting public to be on a side is 51%. When we go against the public in our plays in our parlay picks, we look for at least 67% of the public on a particular side to go against it. If you bet against the public, you were probably frustrated last year, as the public actually had winning record against the spread. That is something that almost never happens and the sportsbooks are getting revenge so far this season.
Another interesting trend involves unbeaten teams heading into Week 4. There are three teams at 3-0 that are getting points this week in terms of NFL betting odds. They are the Bills, Vikings and Seahawks. You might want to think twice before betting on those teams this week. In the last 10 years, unbeaten teams heading into Week 4 that are listed as the underdog are just 2-9 SU and 3-7-1 ATS. In the last 20 years they are 6-19 SU and 9-15-1 ATS.
Another interesting trend this week is what you might call the letdown trend. The Rams rallied from 14 points down last week to win against San Francisco. Teams coming off a 14 point or more comeback win have struggled the following week going 51-68 SU and 49-70-1 ATS. The Chicago Bears could be worth a look at home this week as they host the Rams.
What about the opposite of that trend. The Jaguars were horrible last week, losing by 37 points to the Cardinals. In the last 20 years teams that lost by 30 points or more and are underdogs of more than four points the next week are a very profitable 64% against the spread. You might want to consider taking Jacksonville this week with NFL Week 4 NFL picks. For future reference, teams that lose by 35 points or more and are dogs of four points or more the next week are 73% against the spread in their next game.
We mentioned earlier the Patriots catching 10 points against the 49ers. They will be the first double-digit underdog in NFL betting this season. The Patriots have not been a double-digit underdog since 2001.
Since this is Week 4 in the NFL, there will be some teams on bye next week. The Eagles, Chargers, Titans and Lions are all on bye next week. Teams heading into their bye are usually good bets, as since 2016, teams getting ready for the bye are 59% ATS.Bet Week 4 NFL Games at BetMGM.
