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A soft spot in the PGA Tour schedule has the field south of the border this week for the Mexico Open at VidantaWorld. Coming between the West Coast Swing and the start of high profile tournaments in Florida, we have a thinned out field with OWGR No. 30 Akshay Bhatia the highest ranked and the PGA golf odds betting favorite at Caesars. Bhatia and Rasmus Hojgaard are the only golfers that opened with odds shorter than 20/1 suggesting a wide open field, and the two favorites are featured in a tournament matchup. A number of players make up the second tier on the outright betting board with all of them involved in tournament matchups. The Mexico Open has been played since the 1940’s as the country’s national open with Vidanta Vallarta hosting for the first time in 2022 when the tournament was first sanctioned by the PGA Tour.
Tournament Notes: Jake Knapp went off around 55/1 last year end emerged with his first career Tour title with a 2-shot victory. Stretched to 7,436 yards Vidanta Vallarta is a long par 71, but with little resistance the resort course hasn’t been much of a problem for Tour players in the past. Tony Finau was 24-under in 2023 and Knapp finished at 19-under last year despite closing with an even-par round. At least 23 players finished at 10-under or better in each of the previous three tournaments. The pros usually devour resort courses and Vidanta Vallarta is no different.
Mexico Open at VidantaWorld Matchup Odds
Akshay Bhatia -125 vs. Rasmus Hojgaard -105
Akshay Bhatia -135 vs. Kurt Kitayama +105
Rasmus Hojgaard-130 vs. Kurt Kitayama +100
Sam Stevens -120 vs. Michael Kim -110
Patrick Rodgers -120 vs. Stephan Jaeger -110
Taylor Moore -130 vs. Beau Hossler +100
Ben Griffin -130 vs. Harry Hall +100
Aaron Rai -120 vs. Kevin Yu -110
Alex Smalley -125 vs. C.t. Pan -105
Jake Knapp +100 vs. Nicolai Hojgaard -130
Thorbjorn Olesen -105 vs. Niklas Norgaard Moller -125
Justin Lower +100 vs. Greyson Sigg -130
Adam Svensson -105 vs. Patrick Fishburn -125
Andrew Putnam -115 vs. Ryan Gerard -115
Mac Meissner -125 vs. Michael Thorbjornsen -105
Jesper Svensson -105 vs. Matt Wallace -125
Ryan Fox -125 vs. Erik Van Rooyen -105
Chan Kim -110 vs. Charley Hoffman -120
Ben Silverman -115 vs. Sam Ryder -115
Joe Highsmith -125 vs. Kevin Roy -105
Carson Young -105 vs. Rico Hoey -125
Antoine Rozner -120 vs. Victor Perez -110
Lanto Griffin -115 vs. Ricky Castillo -115
Christopher Gotterup -140 vs. Alejandro Tosti +110
Vincent Norrman -135 vs. Matt Mccarty +105
Vincent Whaley -125 vs. Matti Schmid -105
Hayden Springer -120 vs. Ben Kohles -110
Luke List -125 vs. Henrik Norlander -105
Frankie Capan -125 vs. K.h. Lee -105
Emiliano Grillo -130 vs. Sami Valimaki +100
Mexico Open at VidantaWorld Matchup Picks
Beau Hossler +100 vs. Taylor Moore
Hossler recently had a stretch of three straight top 20s and six in a seven-start run that started with a runner-up at the Sanderson Farms last October, so I’m not going out on a limb here. He’s been one of the better putters this season and will take advantage of the spacious greens to improve his score. He earned a top 10 here in his only start in 2023.
Matt McCarty +105 vs. Vincent Norrman
Always in search of value picks I came across what I think is a good one in McCarty, who opened at plus odds in this matchup. It’s been a struggle lately for him with three straight MCs, but McCarty had a seamless transition to the Tour after winning three times in six starts on the Korn Ferry circuit. McCarty triumphed at the Black Desert Championship in October and the field should be more to his liking.
Carson Young -105 vs. Rico Hoey
I’m counting on Young’s familiarity with the Vidanta Vallarta layout to bring home a matchup win. Since turning pro a few years back two of his better finishes have taken place at the venue. He earned a share of 15th in the 2023 edition and last year was even better overcoming an opening 71 to finish 12-under and tied for eighth.
Justin Lower +100 vs. Greyson Sigg
Nothing helps navigate a resort course better than well-placed shots and Lower has been among the most accurate hitters on Tour this season. Over his last seven starts he’s placed among the top 5 in three of them starting with a co-runner-up at the World Wide Technology Championship in November. He also has a T5 in Bermuda and most recently a T3 at the AMX. At last year’s tournament Lower shot a pair of 66s earning a share of third.
Akshay Bhatia -125 vs. Rasmus Hojgaard
Catching the two favorites in a head to head is always fun which is why I picked this matchup. Hojgaard is looking to rebound after a disastrous showing at The Genesis when he finished dead last. Bhatia has been much more consistent playing the weekend in his last 10 starts that included five top 25s. Bhatia had his best finish of the season last week and in his last visit here he earned a solo fourth in 2023.
Check out the latest Mexico Open at VidantaWorld matchup odds at Caesars
