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With the West Coast Swing put to rest for another year the PGA Tour makes a stop south of the border for the Mexico Open at VidantaWorld before heading east. Played in some form as the country’s national championship since 1944, the 2022 edition was the first sanctioned by the PGA Tour with a full allotment of FedExCup points and a nice paycheck to the winner. Jake Knapp returns as the defending champion, but Akshay Bhatia opened as the golf odds betting favorite at Proline+ and is one of just two players with shorter than 20/1 odds. With a number of notable players taking the week off the field is watered down and the odds suggest a wide open field. In earning his first Tour victory last year Knapp went off around 55/1 suggesting anything can happen. Rasmus Hojgaard is positioned as the second favorite and will be competing against his brother Nicolai, who is a bit further down the odds board.
Venue: At 7,436 yards Vidanta Vallarta is a relatively long par 71 layout. Prior to the arrival of the PGA Tour in 2022 the course underwent a major overhaul with more than 200 yards added to the distance, new and reworked bunkers and a reduced par from 73 to 71. It is a resort course and offers little resistance to the professionals. Two years ago Tony Finau finished 24-under to win by three swings. The main defense is water, which comes into play on 11 holes, and over 100 bunkers could be troublesome making positioning off the tee crucial.
Last Year: Matching the tournament low with a third round 63, Knapp built enough of a lead to hold off Sami Valimaki and earn his first career PGA Tour title. Entering Sunday Knapp led by four shots and his even-par 71 opened the door for Valimaki who briefly took advantage. Knapp recovered on the back nine to win by two shots. C.T. Pan, Stephan Jaeger and Justin Lower were five shots off the pace tied for third.
TV Coverage: Golf Channel, NBC
Odds to Win Mexico Open at VidantaWorld
Akshay Bhatia +1500
Rasmus Hojgaard +1800
Kurt Kitayama +2000
Sam Stevens +2500
Patrick Rodgers +2800
Michael Kim +2800
Stephan Jaeger +3000
Harry Hall +3000
Taylor Moore +3000
Aaron Rai +3300
Ben Griffin +3500
Jake Knapp +3500
Beau Hossler +4000
Kevin Yu +4000
Alex Smalley +4000
Niklas Norgaard +4000
Nicolai Hojgaard +4000
C.t. Pan +5000
Thorbjorn Olesen +5000
Justin Lower +5000
Matt Wallace +5500
Greyson Sigg +5500
Jesper Svensson +5500
Ryan Gerard +5500
Michael Thorbjornsen +5500
Favorite
Akshay Bhatia +1500
The highest ranked player at No. 30 in the most recent OWGR listing, Bhatia is the class of the field. He is coming off his best finish of the young season with a T9 at The Genesis and carded rounds of 65 and 63 to finish fourth in this event last year. You don’t always get the favorite with such favorable odds, which is a blessing and a curse, but Bhatia has traditionally done well on tropical courses.
Value Picks
Stephan Jaeger +3000
Making his fourth start in this tournament Jaeger has more course knowledge than most, and he’s been taking notes that resulted in him finishing T3 last year. He also has a pair of top 20s on his resume with a 12-round scoring average of 68.08. In three of those rounds he carded a 65 or lower and has never gone over par. Jaeger has been consistent but he needs to turn it up a notch to get to the winner’s circle.
Aaron Rai +3300
After the first month of last year Rai didn’t go more than three starts without capturing at least a top 25 and the finishes were better toward the end of the season that included a win at the Wyndham Championship in August. So it is somewhat surprising that he finished outside the top 35 in his last three starts. Rai has also played this event in three previous years with a best of T19 last February.
Justin Lower +5000
It’s worth it to go down the odds board in a field like this and Lower stands out due to his recent form. He has three top 5s in his last seven starts and he overcame an opening 70 last year to finish in tie for third in his second start in this tournament when he led the field in GIR. He’s been deadly accurate this season, a benefit on a resort course.
Carson Young +6500
Some of Young’s best results have occurred in similar field events which is why I think he’s worth a look. During the fall he had a T2 at the World Wide Technology Championship and was T11 at the Black Desert Championship. Young was T8 here last year and also boasts a T15 in his first outing making him a solid value pick on the PGA odds.
Check out the latest Mexico Open at VidantaWorld odds at Proline+
