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December 13, 2024The Commander-in-Chief Trophy will be on the line Saturday afternoon when the Navy Midshipmen and No. 22 Army Black Knights square off in the 124th installment of “America’s Game” signifying the official end of the college football betting season. Brian Newberry’s Middies enter this tilt off a 34-20 outright win and NCAAF odds cover against the East Carolina Pirates to move the team to 8-3 straight up (SU) and 7-4 against the spread (ATS) for the season. As for Jeff Monken’s Blackshirts, they pounded the Tulane Green Wave 35-14 as 5-point underdogs in the AAC title game to move to 11-1 SU and 7-4 ATS overall. Linemakers at Caesars Sportsbook opened the betting lines with Army installed 4-point favorites and the total set at 40.5. CFB bettors have since pushed Army up to 6.5-point favorites and bet the total down to 39 with each side taking in nearly 80 percent of the booked handle.
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Navy Midshipmen vs. Army Black Knights CFB Same Game Parlay:
Navy started its respective season out with a bang rattling off six straight wins with the highlights including 56-44 and 34-7 handlings of Memphis and Air force, respectively. Then Notre Dame came up on the schedule and everything took a major turn for the worst. The Fighting Irish ran roughshod over the Midshipmen piling up 466 yards of total offense en route to cruising to the 51-14 win and cover as what proved to be laughable two-touchdown MetLife Stadium favorites. Navy would then go on to split its final four games losing outright at Rice 24-10 as 13-point favorites and following it up with a disastrous 35-0 shutout loss at home against Tulane with a bid to the conference title game on the line.
Blake Horvath was forced to miss the season finale against ECU but is said to be healed from the rib injury and good to go for Saturday’s throw down with the Middies. That’s huge for Navy’s chances of competing with the favored Black Knights considering Navy’s overall success ultimately hinged on the field general’s ability to get the ground game going and come up with a deep strike down field on occasion. Navy ranks 80th overall in averaging 375+ yards per game, but its rushing attack has proved lethal with him, Alex Tecza, and Eli Heidenreich comprising the three-headed monster that went for 247+ rushing yards per game (#8) and 5.5 yards per carry (#11).
Army proved to be one of the bigger surprises of the college football betting season with it winning all but one of 12 played games and going a moneymaking 8-4 against the CFB betting odds for its wagering supporters. Three of its four overall point spread defeats came by a total of 2.5 points! Regardless, it secured six straight wins and covers before failing to get the job done by a half-point in a 45-28 win over ECU as 17.5-point favorites. Though it increased the overall win streak to 9-0 heading into Week 13, it suffered the same fate as rival Navy in its attempt to hang with CFP bound Notre Dame who smashed them 49-14 as 14-point favorites—this time at Yankee Stadium. From there, they toppled UTSA in the regular season finale before pasting the Green Wave in the title game.
Like the Midshipmen, the Black Knights are heavily reliant upon the running game getting the job done for the offense. Bryson Daily was only asked to throw the ball two times in the decided handling of the Green Wave last time out, yet Army still cruised to the win and cover by way of ripping Tulane on the ground for 335 yards on a whopping 57 carries. With Navy’s defense serving up just short of 160 yards per game on the ground (#85) and conceding a beefy 4.5 yards per carry, it’s pretty safe to assume Daily, Kanye Udoh, and Noah Short are going to have a good ‘ol time firing up the afterburners.
Though Army boasts a solid rush defense (#11), I’m curious to see how it handles the explosiveness Navy brings over a full 60 minutes. I anticipate both defenses struggling to contain big plays on the ground, with chunk yardage coming frequently for both teams. Historically, the Army-Navy game has been a haven for under bettors, cashing at an 8-1-1 clip over the last decade. However, it’s been a long time since either team featured such dynamic quarterbacks. Expect both offenses to rise to the occasion, trading blows and putting points on the board that surpass the current total.
- NAVY/ARMY OVER 39
- BLAKE HORVATH OVER 59.5 RUSHING YARDS
- BLAKE HORVATH ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
- BRYSON DAILY OVER 119.5 RUSHING YARDS
- BRYSON DAILY ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN