AFC Championship Same Game Parlay Picks – Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs
January 23, 2025
My NFC Championship same game parlay picks take us to the City of Brotherly Love where the Washington Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles will lock horns for a third time this NFL betting season with a bid to Super Bowl LIX on the line. Dan Quinn’s troops pulled out a shocking 45-31 outright victory over the Lions to head back to the NFC title game for the first time since winning it all back in 1991, while Nick Sirianni’s squad held on for dear life in a driving snow storm to fend off the Rams to head back to the conference championship round for the second time under his watch.
PROLINE+ initially set the Eagles as 5-point home favorites on the NFL odds with a total of 48 for this title game matchup. NFL bettors have since pushed the number to beat up to -6 regardless of the home team only being aligned with 44% of the bets and 32% of the money. The total is down a half-point to 47.5 by way of the under being supported with 57% of the tickets and 66% of the handle. These teams split their pair of regular season meetings both straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) during the regular season with the O/U 1-1.
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Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles NFL Same Game Parlay:
I by no means expected a third go-round between these NFC East rivals to occur after hammering the over and Detroit Lions in last week’s division round same game parlay picks. Though Detroit was able to get out to an early 7-0 lead following its second possession, it was all Commies from that point forward with Jayden Daniels and his mates mounting a furious second quarter outscoring the Lions 28-14 to put the game on ice. When the dust cleared, Washington racked up 481 yards of total offense, scored touchdowns on all four of their red zone penetrations, and won the turnover battle 5-0.
The Commanders were able to do as they pleased against the Lions injury ravaged defense. Brian Robinson Jr., Austin Ekeler, Jeremy McNichols, and Daniels combined for 182 yards and three touchdowns on the ground, while the aerial attack took advantage of Detroit’s weak link to the tune of 299 yards and a pair of scores. Terry McLaurin and Dyami Brown each went off with the duo combining for 10 receptions on 14 targets that were turned into 185 yards and a touchdown. I’d be shocked if the offense was anywhere near as efficient or lethal in this third dance with an Eagles team that owns the league’s No. 1 ranked overall defense that concedes fewer than 18 points per game (#2).
Regardless of having an Eagles ticket to win the NFC in my back pocket, the defensive advantage Philadelphia owns in this pairing is simply just too much to ignore. When these teams squared off in the Linc under the Thursday night lights back in Week 11, Daniels was held to an 81.6 QB rating after only completing 22 of 32 passes for 191 yards and 1:1 TD/INT ratio. More importantly, Jalen Carter and his defensive mates held the soon to be named Offensive Rookie of the Year to just 18 rushing yards on his seven totes of the rock.
My same game parlay expectations are that this second rematch plays more in-line with the result of the first meeting than the second when Washington scored the last second 36-33 outright win as 4-point home dogs. If you remember, Jalen Hurts was removed from that game early in the first half, and the Eagles were still a dropped pass by DeVonta Smith away from not only winning, but covering that matchup against the closing NFL spread.
While Hurts hasn’t looked sharp since returning from his concussion, I believe it’s Saquon Barkley—along with the defense—that ultimately propels the team to a win and cover, securing a spot in the big game for the second time in three years. I’m expecting another big showing from the Eagles premiere RB1 who has combined for 296 rushing yards and 4 TD in his pair of run-ins with the Commies 30th ranked run defense that just served up 201 rushing yards to the Lions regardless of being up double-digits most of the game. Barkley pummeled his combined yardage prop for us last week, and we’ll be going right back to that well regardless of linemakers tacking on an extra 20 yards.
Bolstering my decision to throw the Eagles into my same-game parlay is the fact that Quinyon Mitchell is said to be good to go after leaving last week’s matchup with a shoulder injury. Daniels averaged 224.5 passing yards in his first two run-ins against this defense. He also threw a total of three interceptions and was sacked four times. As dominant I expect the Eagles running game to be paired with Philly’s dominance in defending the pass (#1), I’m expecting a very long afternoon to play out for the visitors who will be partaking in a fourth straight game away from Landover. Cinderella’s glass slipper is about to get smashed!
- PHILADELPHA EAGLES -6
- SAQUON BARKLEY OVER 141.5 SCRIMMAGE YARDS
- JAYDEN DANIELS UNDER 224.5 PASSING YARDS
