NFL Week 10 Opening Line Report

By Phil Simon

Last week in the NFL was a sign that you just never know what’s going to happen. Three of the league’s four 1-loss teams were defeated and the AFC-best Buffalo Bills were upset by the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Miami Dolphins ended a 7-game losing streak and the Giants upset the Raiders throwing the AFC West into chaos. It’s too bad the Detroit Lions didn’t play or they may have gotten their first win. Just their luck, though, to have a bye the week underdogs go 8-5 straight up. Three games on the Week 10 betting slate opened with a spread of 10 points or more and four others had the initial line at a converted touchdown or higher. Can the dogs bark again in Week 10?

Week 10 Biggest Line Moves

Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers

We saw what missing a starting quarterback means to these teams. Seattle went 1-2 without Russell Wilson with their only victory over the woeful Jags. Following their bye it looks as though Wilson is ready to return for the Week 10 clash in Green Bay. As far as injuries are concerned things couldn’t have gone better for Wilson. He’s been cleared to play just a month after his finger was operated on giving Seattle hope that their season isn’t over yet.

The Packers got a glimpse of the future without Aaron Rodgers and it wasn’t pretty. With Rodgers on the shelf due to COVID, Jordan Love got the start against the Chiefs on Sunday. Love was 19 of 34 passing for 190 yards with a touchdown and a pick. The Packers lost 13-7. Green Bay was a 5.5-point favorite on the early line, but with news of Wilson’s pending return the Seahawks got some buyback lowering the line to Green Bay -4.

That is a rather unusual shift since Rodgers is also expected back after serving his NFL mandated COVID sentence. Given the interest surrounding the circumstances there could be more punishment dished out by the league. As silly as they are the protocols are in place to keep everybody safe and the entire league has to follow them. Getting back to the game thread, the Seahawks look much better with Wilson than Green Bay does with Love.

The spread will fluctuate throughout the week as news surfaces of Rodgers’ status. And while Wilson has been cleared to play it doesn’t mean he will. He did just have surgery on a finger attached to his throwing hand after all. This is a game you probably should wait to wager on considering all that will happen before kickoff.

Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots

The early line for this matchup had the Patriots positioned as a 2.5-point favorite. That wasn’t a complete head-scratcher since the Browns dropped three of four heading into their Week 9 contest with Cincinnati. The offense struggled scoring no more than 17 points in the previous three games and the fallout from the Odell Beckham Jr. saga was cause for concern.

The Pats were going the other direction having won two straight and three of four before Sunday’s games. With the cancerous OBJ off the squad the Browns got back to playing football thrashing the Bengals 41-16 scoring as many points as they had in the previous three games combined. And the betting public jumped back on the bandwagon forcing the line down to Pats -1 and to a pick ‘em at some shops.

New England also had a good week stomping Carolina 24-6 for its third straight victory and cover. The Pats are just 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS at home this season giving Cleveland backers even more reason to support their team.

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets

No other game has had significant line movement as of yet so I’m putting this game down since it has the largest opening spread of any game on the Week 10 board. And are the Bills really a 13-point favorite if they can’t beat Jacksonville. This is the third straight game the Bills are a double-digit favorite after losing outright, 9-6, to the Jags and pushing the 15-point line in their 26-11 win over Miami in Week 8.

I guess part of the reason for a lofty spread is the quarterback situation in New York. Zach Wilson is still shelved with a knee injury and Mike White didn’t finish last week’s game against Indy after sustaining an arm injury. Josh Johnson finished up against the Colts throwing for 317 yards and three touchdowns. The Jets also brought in Joe Flacco a few weeks ago.

There are some reports saying White is ready to go after the mini-bye. White had a stellar game leading the Jets to an upset of Cincinnati as an 11.5-point dog in Week 8 throwing for 405 yards and three touchdowns on 37 of 45 passing. Everybody was eagerly waiting to see what he would do for an encore and he was 7 of 11 for 95 yards and a touchdown before getting hurt.